We have all 30 teams in action in the MLB on Tuesday evening, but our experts on the "Payoff Pitch" podcast are targeting one specific matchup.
That duel is between the New York Mets and the New York Yankees, who are playing at 7:05 p.m. ET on TBS on Tuesday, July 23.
So, here are MLB picks and predictions, including the "Payoff Pitch" Subway Series best bets for Mets vs. Yankees.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:05 p.m. | Over 8.5 |
| 7:05 p.m. | Yankees F5 (-155) |
Over 8.5
7:05 p.m. ET ⋅ TBS
For what its worth, both Subway Series games in June in Queens went way over with 32 combined runs scored.
My handicap comes down to fading these two pitchers.
Jose Quintana has been a regular target of mine. He's 35-years old with a 90 mph fastball and boasts a 5.2 xERA. He's allowing more home runs than ever in his career, coupled with a career-low strikeout rate of 18%.
I think the Yankees' offense is beginning to enter undervalued territory, as they've been terrible of late. This lineup is so talented, so I expect things to turn quickly, especially against Quintana.
For the Yankees, I think Luis Gil is still overvalued. He just hit the 100-inning mark for the season and his strand rate has turned the wrong corner. The walks are a huge problem as he's issued 50 walks this year.
I expect the Mets to be patient at the plate (as they always are) and for them to ding up Hill for some runs.
I expect a high scoring affair in the Bronx on Tuesday.
Pick: Over 8.5
Yankees F5 (-155)
7:05 p.m. ET ⋅ TBS
Tanner lays out many good points about Quintana and where my cap is at.
He has a home run problem, giving up 1.5 per nine innings this season. He has no velocity or movement left and he's allowing over a .350 xwOBP on each of his top three pitches.
I know the Yankees have struggled offensively, but they should be able to get after a bad starting pitcher.
Gil has had his share of struggles this season, but he just went 6.2 innings and struck out nine in his last outing. It's clear he's getting his command back and lowering those walk numbers, so I think the Yankees have the clear pitching advantage in the first five innings.
The Mets have the better bullpen, so I'll stay away from the full game.
