Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, June 4.
MLB Picks, Predictions for Thursday, June 4
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- Guardians +140, 0.5u (Bet to +130)
- Twins over 4.5 +120, 0.5u (Bet to even)
Guardians @ Yankees Picks
Slade Cecconi is what he is and that’s a bottom of the rotation arm with estimators ranging from a 4.13 dERA to a 4.58 xERA that are very much aligned with his career numbers. He’s just about the least interesting component of this game.
I’d still expect the Yankees to be without Aaron Judge on Thursday afternoon, which drops their projected lineup all the way down to a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last season.
Paul Goldschmidt is hitting the snot out of the ball with a 179 wRC+ over the last 30 days and would likely be the Judge replacement, but he has just a 72 wRC+ against RHP since last season, one of five projected Yankees below 95 in that category.
Meanwhile, Carlos Rodon has only allowed eight runs (seven earned) over 19 innings, but has done so by cutting last year’s K-BB in half to 8.6%. He’s walked 13 of 81 batters and at least two in all four starts.
He does have a 52.2 GB%, but only exceeded 50% in his first start and the velocity has steadily dropped with each outing:
95.7 mph, 94.9 mph, 93.6 mph, 93.4 mph
Rodon averaged 94.1 mph last season, down 1.3 mph from 2024. Any further significant drop would be a concern. This would also be the second straight season his has K-BB declined, but because of the 3.09 ERA last season, nobody is really talking about it.
I’m not suggesting Rodon is doomed, but indicators are moving in the wrong direction, aside from his contact profile (3.14 xERA, 6.4 Barrels/BBE%, 29.8 HardHit%), which is one of the least stable parts of his profile in such a small sample.
Perhaps the good news is that Rodon’s pitch modeling has improved with each start, though he’s yet to see a 100 Pitching+ mark in any of his outings yet, reaching 99 in each of the last two.
It would seem obvious that the stuff components exceed the command ones with his walk issues so far.
Ironically, he’s pitched in line with projections that pace him around four and not too far ahead of Cecconi.
If we believe that and that a Cleveland offense with a 110 wRC+ against LHP compares favorably to a Yankee lineup without Judge, then the conclusion would have to be that the market remains too high on the Yankees.
Defenses are comparable, with projected lineups within three Fielding Run Value of each other and it’s the Cleveland bullpen with the third best estimators in baseball over the last month (3.15 FIP/3.36 xFIP/2.92 SIERA), while the Yankee relievers swim in the middle of the pack (3.96 FIP/3.95 xFIP/3.63 SIERA).
It’s not a large edge, but it’s there without Judge down to about +130.
Pick: Guardians +140, 0.5u (FD) (Bet to +130)
Royals @ Twins Picks
I don’t care how many pitches Seth Lugo is throwing (Statcast classifies eight with none more than 20% of the time), I’m not buying.
His only estimator within half a run of a 3.55 ERA is a 3.15 FIP, which is nearly two runs below his 4.99 xERA because only four of his 22 barrels have left the park.
Last year, even with the fences further back in Kansas City, making it one of the toughest power environments in the league, 27 of Lugo's 47 barrels turned into home runs.
In other words, there's not a single bit of reliable evidence that Lugo can sustain a 4.8 HR/FB and remain a true sub-four pitcher.
Whie his pitch modeling has actually improved (4.12 Bot ERA, 95 Pitching+) from 2025 (5.09, 90), Pitching+ still only qualifies the curveball above average (110). PitchingBot is a bit more generous, but still gives him an overall 41 for BotStf.
Lugo has becoeme very hittable if he’s not perfectly commanding and LHBs in particular have smoked him since last season (.350 wOBA, .364 xwOBA).
This is a matchup where the Twins project to line up six from that side against him. As a whole, the regular Minnesota lineup against RHP is averaging a 103 wRC+ and .161 against RHP since last season.
Importantly, I’m not sure how many people realize that Statcast now casts Target Field as a top five run environment with a 106 Park Run Factor, tied with Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati and ahead of Fenway.
The current weather forecast also suggests a further bump that could make this park play around 10% above average, though we don’t have an umpire yet, as this is the only series starting on Thursday.
The final components are a neutral defense, but terrible bullpen for the Royals. Their 5.17 FIP/4.37 xFIP/4.20 SIERA mark them as the fourth worst bullpen over the last 30 days. They don’t have a single right-handed reliever currently pitching well.
I like the Twins to exceed their 4.5 run team total more than half the time in this spot.
Pick: Twins over 4.5 +120, 0.5u (Bet 365) (Bet to even)
Matt Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, June 4
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Guardians +140, 0.5u (Bet to +130)
- Twins over 4.5 +120, 0.5u (Bet to even)
