Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Jon Anderson has that job for Monday, June 1.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Monday, June 1
- Rays Moneyline (-178), Tigers vs Rays Over 8 (-102)
- Sandy Alcantara Under 3.5 ER (-160)
- Jacob deGrom Over 1.5 ER (-153)
- Twins Moneyline (-162)
- Angels -1.5 (-102), Jo Adell to Homer (+350), Mike Trout to Homer (+320), Angels Over 1.5 Team Homers
- Diamondbacks Moneyline (+134)
Tigers vs Rays Picks
We get this week started with two offenses in the bottom third of the league in hitting homers. It will be Ty Madden against Griffin Jax in Tampa Bay. Both of these guys were relievers in recent history, and they're both much unknown commodities as starters.
Madden has been tossed around this year and has recently been sent back to AAA where he threw 4.1 innings on May 25th. He threw seven pitches on May 15th, that was his last time in the Majors. So we're looking at him as a 3-4 inning guy. His sample size is small, so it's worthwhile to check on his Stuff+ by pitch:
- 4-Seam Fastball 90.2
- Cutter 98.2
- Sinker 91.0
- Slider 97.3
Nothing good to speak of. His four-seamer looks particularly unready for prime time, so the Rays will be able to do what they do here. Get balls in play and manufacture runs. They are 12th in the league in run scoring while being fifth-worst in homers. Their team batting average is right there around the top of the league, hanging with the Dodgers around a .260 team mark.
Griffin Jaxis a project Tampa is working on. They acquired him from Minnesota last year to be a late-inning reliever. And that's how he started this year, but with the season-ending injury to Ryan Pepiot, they decided to move him into the rotation. And here's how it's gone
> 6 GS, 1.29 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
That's a bit misleading, because he's only handled 5+ innings twice. But yeah, three earned runs in his last 21 innings will help the ball club. His last pitch count was 38 after he had to leave early due to being hit by a comebacker. That was back on May 26th, so he's on regular rest here.
We don't expect bulk from either starter. I think you'll be well into both bullpens in the sixth inning. And neither one of those bullpens is anything to write home about; they both are in the lower half of the league in ERA this year with pretty poor indicators to go with it.
We're simply not going to see a ton of high-quality pitching in this game. Jax and Madden are both going to have trouble staying effective while getting stretched out. In the case of Madden, he's probably not a big league talent to begin with.
So I really like the Rays to take this one at home. They're seemingly a more well-managed club who knows how to win games. And it also helps that the Tigers have the league's fifth-worst team OPS (and the absolute worst in May).
Pick: Rays Moneyline (-178), Over 8 (-102)
Marlins vs Nationals Picks
14 earned runs in the last two starts from Sandy Alcantara. And now he takes on a team leading the league in run scoring. It's been terrible for Sandy and the Marlins pitching staff more generally.
But my Matchups Model kinda likes how Sandy lines up against these Nationals. He throws a bunch of sinkers and changeups, usually keeping the ball on the ground. There have been nine homers hit against him, so he's not been great at that, but it's still a better-than-average rate of giving up the long ball.
I'm personally unsure how the Nationals have scored as many runs as they have. Nunez, Crews, Milas, Tena, Lile, Vivas… these aren't exactly household names in the lineup.
Baseball is a game that moves in waves. You can predict the full season with moderate accuracy, but day-to-day it's pretty tough to do. So that's why I like to jump in on guys after particularly bad stretches, like the one Sandy's on right now. I think he keeps the ball on the ground here and has a decent outing against this Nationals lineup.
And look at the price you can get on it. -160 for under 3.5 earned runs! His counterpart, Cade Cavalli, is at -370 for that same line! Wild stuff, and it feels like a spot to buy in to me.
Pick: Sandy Alcantara Under 3.5 ER (-160)
Rangers vs Cardinals Picks
We have Jacob deGrom throwing in this one. He has mostly been good this year with a sick 29% K% and a 5% BB%, but when you look at the ERA – you're unimpressed. It's at 3.77. And why is that?
One reason, really. The home run. He is surprisingly easy to take out of the ballyard. He's given up 13 homers this year. That's tied for fifth-most in baseball. And nine of those have come against left-handed hitters.
The problem is the fastball. A problem with a Jacob deGrom fastball! Hard to believe, I know. But check out the numbers:
- 24% GB%
- .391 xwOBA
- 9 HR
The easiest pitches to hit for homers this year (250 pitches thrown minimum):
- Eric Lauer 4-Seamer
- Ryan Weathers 4-Seamer
- Mike Burrows 4-Seamer
- Tanner Bibee Cutter
- Jameson Taillon 4-Seamer
- Aaron Nola 4-Seamer
- Jacob deGrom 4-Seamer
- Grant Holmes 4-Seamer
- Drew Rasmussen 4-Seamer
- Zack Littell 4-Seamer
The Cardinals aren't the home run heaviest lineup in the league, but they do have Jordan Walkerwho can do that sort of thing. JJ Wetherholt has nine homers of his own. One sneaky guy that could be in the lineup today would be Nelson Velasquez.
This guy swings for the fences. He has a history of some high barrel rates when a team has let him stay in the Majors for a bit.
One sneaky price I'm seeing is +820 on Jimmy Crooks. He's just gotten the call up from the minors to play some catcher. He has a high strikeout rate, and he's rarely seen pitchers like deGrom, but he can hit the long ball. I think you might get a dinger or two off of deGrom that makes you go "who?" tonight.
Pick: Jacob deGrom Over 1.5 ER (-153)
White Sox vs Twins Picks
Joe Ryanis cruising. Six straight outings allowing fewer than three earned runs. And tonight he gets a matchup with the Murakami-less White Sox. Even with Murakami hitting 20 homers in two months, this lineup had an OPS short of elite because of their high strikeout ways and low batting averages.
Removing Murakami makes a big difference. Taking him out of the stat calculation for the year drops their team OPS from .723 to .700. That would take them from the sixth-best OPS to 15th. So they're a league-average offense at best right now, and I'd take the UNDER on that.
I think Joe Ryan is ready to cook. Both his fastball and curveball have been so sick this year. He has a 2.68 SIERA the way I calculate it. A 22% K-BB% and just four homers allowed. I'm not sure what he's done to allow this few homers, but it's something. It's the best home run rate of his career by a mile. I think it'll come up, but 2+ months in, I'm starting to believe some kind of tweak was made, and it's worked.
On the other side is an interesting arm in David Sandlin. He came up from the minors for the White Sox and threw six innings of one-hit, one-run ball against the Twins last week. Now he'll see them again. Which could work to the Twins advantage. The memory is fresh in their minds of how this guy operates.
Sandlin did have a 35% K% in the minors this year. But the stuff models didn't love his stuff from that first outing, and this guy wasn't exactly on our radar before getting pushed into this rotation. So I wouldn't want to bet positively on him. There aren't lines out for him at this point, and that tells you the books are reeling a bit on him.
But if we're getting under 4.5 strikeouts for around even money, I'd be on that. The projection on him is 3.8 strikeouts tonight in my model.
But I love the Twins behind Joe Ryan. I looked at the outs recorded market for Ryan, and DraftKings likes him a lot too! Too much, in fact. He's at over 17.5 outs for -168. That means seven innings, which he's done twice all year. No thanks on that!
Pick: Twins Moneyline (-162)
Rockies vs Angels Picks
This is a nice spot for the Angels to get a win. These are two of the worst teams in the league, but the Angels get a big advantage here for two reasons.
The first reason is Jose Soriano being on the bump. And while his ace-like start to the season has been mostly forgotten already (5.34 ERA in May), he still should be considered a solid arm who is capable of dominating, especially against a Rockies team flying from Denver to LA to open up a road trip. The Rockies are particularly bad in these first games out of Coors as they adjust to the altitude and deal with the possible jet lag (although this is a relatively short flight).
The other thing working in the Angels' favor is how many dingers that Kyle Freelandgives up to right-handed hitters. Going back to last year, he has a 4.5% HR% allowed to righties. That's 31 homers allowed in the last two seasons to these hitters. Righties have a .419 xwOBA and a .642 SLG against the guy. He's cooked, boys.
The Angels don't have a lot going for them on the roster, but the one they're chalk full of is right handed guys with power. Let's check on some of these Angels barrel rates against lefties the last two seasons:
- Neto 18%
- Adell 17%
- Trout 15%
- Peraza 12%
- Soler 11%
- O'Hoppe 11%
They strike out plenty, and rarely pile up a bunch of hits to put crooked numbers on the board, but they can hit the homer. If you want to match this up with someone currently swinging the bat well, I'd offer you Jo Adell, who has looked a lot better lately with a 12.5% Brl% and a .317 xwOBA in his last 15 days. He's homered three times in the last ten games. So he's getting some of that power he showed last year back in his game. And then there's the Mike Troutguy who has a 21% Brl% on the year with a very nice 23% K%.
I'm all over the Angels in this one. Soriano gets the job done, and a couple of right-handed homers are all they need.
Pick: Angels -1.5 (-102), Adell HR (+350), Trout HR (+320), Angels Over 1.5 Team Homers
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Picks
I have a stat that I cannot explain. Emmet Sheehan home/road splits this year:
- Home: 2.07 SIERA
- Road: 4.08 SIERA
This dude has a 33% K% at home and just 18% on the road. That's something that makes no sense to me. I'm willing to call it almost entirely randomness. But it's becoming hard to deny, and his home/road splits are real for his whole career. Not to this extent, but he's always been better in Dodgers Stadium than away from it.
Do with that information what you will. My projection model won't build that home/road split in because it's mostly noise, but even without that going on – it hates this spot for Sheehan. The projection is 5.4 innings for 4.8 strikeouts and the seventh-most fantasy points scored on this short slate of MLB games.
The D'Backs send Eduardo Rodriguezto the mound. It's another guy I can't explain. He's given up one run in his last 29.1 innings spanning four starts. And that's while having a K% well below 20%.
So two pitchers doing weird things, but I do want to be on the D'Backs side as a home underdog.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (+134)
Anderson's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, June 1
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- Rays Moneyline (-178), Tigers vs Rays Over 8 (+114)
- Sandy Alcantara Under 3.5 ER (-160)
- Jacob deGrom Over 1.5 ER (-153)
- Twins Moneyline (-162)
- Angels -1.5 (-102), Jo Adell to Homer (+350), Mike Trout to Homer (+320), Angels Over 1.5 Team Homers
- Diamondbacks Moneyline (+134)
