Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, June 11.
MLB Picks, Predictions for Thursday, June 11
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- Marlins -112, 1u (Bet to -125)
- Z.Matthews over 4.5 Strikeouts -140, 0.7u (Bet to -150 or 5.5 +130 or better)
- J.Wrobleski over 4.5 strikeouts -130, 0.65u (Bet to -170)
- Lean Dodgers over 4.5 TT (-135 or better) or over 5.5 (+120 or better)
Diamondbacks @ Marlins Picks
It must seem like I have a vendetta against Merrill Kelly at this point because I’ve been on the other side of most of his starts this year. The short version is, that’s not going to change here.
He had allowed nine runs over his previous 34.1 innings heading into his last start, where the Nationals smoked him for seven runs, but that was a bit misleading.
Kelly had just an 8.8 K-BB% and was allowing 14.7% Barrels/BBE over that span. On the season (10 starts), he’s produced a mere 4.6 K-BB% with 16.4% Barrels/BBE.
The 5.71 ERA fits his estimator range (4.56 Bot ERA/93 Pitching+ – 7.62 xERA) with only his pitch modeling below five.
A lot of Tyler Phillips’ work has been out of the bullpen, but mostly in two to three inning stints before transitioning to a larger workload in a starting role a few outings back (behind an opener last time).
The 7.3 K-BB% is not great and we probably should not expect it to improve in transition from relieving to starting, but the contact profile (6.2% Barrels/BBE, 34.9 HardHit%) has manufactured a 3.86 xERA. His contact neutral indicators (SIERA, xFIP) are closer to four and a half with a Bot ERA (3.85) that matches his Statcast profile.
None of it is anywhere near his 2.08 ERA (83.9 LOB%), but it is better than Kelly.
We may also be able to establish an offensive superiority for the Marlins too. They’re 101 wRC+ at home and 96 against RHP compares favorably to Arizona’s 89 on the road and 88 against RHIP.
The gap closes when we consider just the projected lineup against RHP since last season, but still favors the Marlins by four points of wRC+ (103 – 99). The Arizona projected lineup does have a seven point edge (105 – 98) over the last 30 days.
The Marlins may also be able to exploit Kelly's 105 point platoon split this year (59 points since last year) with six or seven LHBs. Batters from that side own a .416 wOBA with 10 of the 13 home runs against him (five on the road).
Both teams will likely field quality defenses. Projecting lineups is always a bit more volatile for day games after night games, but this is probably the one clear Arizona advantage, currently 10 FRV (Fielding Run Value), if those lineups hold. (I have projected catchers who did not catch Wednesday night).
Bullpen estimators over the last 30 days are very comparable (Marlins 18th, Diamondbacks 19th) and Sean Zerillo also ranks them his 17th (Marlins) and 18th (Diamondbacks) rated bullpens overall.
I’m writing this without full bullpen usage information for Wednesday, where both starters went four innings, but neither team had much reason to deploy high leverage relievers in a blowout.
Regardless, I see as much value in the F5 line as I do full game. It’s a matter of personal preference and I even considered splitting the bet. The Miami team total (3.5 -146 FD or 4.5 +120 B365) also looks good.
Pick: Marlins -112, 1u (Bet to -125)
Twins @ Tigers Picks
Zebby Matthews is coming off a season low two strikeouts, but had struck out at least five in each of his previous four starts and only once with a SwStr rate below 11%.
Matthews has faced between 22 and 27 batters in his five starts, hitting 100 pitches exactly three times and completing six innings in four of his starts. These are some favorable workload tendencies.
The projected Detroit lineup (I’ve projected Dingler to DH and Rogers to catch) averages a 22.8 K% against RHP since last season. This includes three batters (Greene, Torkelson and Rogers) above 28%.
Combining the park and forecasted weather effects in Detroit on Thursday give us a neutral strikeout effect, but the scheduled umpire, Ryan Additon averages a 5% bump, which could work out to an extra quarter to a third of a strikeout.
I have Matthews projected for closer to six strikeouts than five and find slight value on his current price of over 4.5 -140. I would not play this above -150 and would need at least +130 if it moved to 5.5.
Pick: Z.Matthews over 4.5 Strikeouts -140, 0.7u (Bet to -150 or 5.5 +130 or better)
Dodgers @ Pirates Picks
Justin Wrobleski’s fastball averaged 93.6 mph over his first seven starts, but has jumped to 94.9 over his last three, increasing by a half mph in each of the three starts to a season high 95.4 mph last time out.
While Wrobleski struck out only 15 of his first 143 batters faced, he’s doubled that up over his last 131 batters faced with 29 strikeouts (22.1%). He’s struck out at least four in each of his last five starts after failing to strikeout more than three in five of his first six outings.
Now he faces a projected Pittsburgh lineup with an average 24.3 K% against LHP since last season, including Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Marcell Ozuna, Billy Cook and Endy Rodrguez all meeting or exceeding the 25% mark.
Wrobleski has failed to face at least 24 batters in just one of his last nine starts and even then only by one batter.
The environment won’t help him much, as scheduled umpire Chris Conroy adds back the 3% strikeout boost the park takes away, but this is a spot where Wrobleski should still be able to beat his strikeout prop and maybe by more than one, for those who like to ladder.
On the other side, an injury to a star player Is never good news, but the absence of Will Smith may actually benefit the Dodger offense here.
That is because Rotowire is projecting Mitch Keller to face seven left-handed Dodgers on Thursday and batters from that side of the plate have a .338 wOBA against him since last year. When we turn to the Statcast numbers, it gets even worse because their xwOBA against him is 23 points higher.
Keller had an intriguing start to the season, allowing 13 runs over his first 41 innings (seven starts) with just three total barrels and one home run, but also only an 11.7 K-BB%.
A 3.75 Bot ERA and 100 Pitching+ confirmed that he was at least pitching competent baseball.
While Keller threw a two run quality start in his next outing, that’s really when the trouble begin because since those first seven starts, he’s allowed 26 runs over 32 innings (six starts) with a 9.2 K-BB% (only one outing above 10%). This includes just four home runs, but 12 barrels (11.5%).
Pitch modeling confirms the decline with a 4.27 Bot ERA and 92 Pitching+.
Now he has to face a lineup full of not only LHBs, but good to great LHBs. The entire projected nine average a 136 wRC+ against RHP since last year with Mookie Betts the low man at 97. Over the last month, Kyle Tucker (91) is the only LHB with a wRC+ below 110 overall.
Ironically, through Tuesday, the Dodgers had a 126 wRC+ each on the road, against RHP and over the last seven days.
Another factor not in Keller’s favor is that while Pittsburgh is not an ideal park for RHBs (98 Park Factor), Statcast pushes that up to 103 for LHBs.
PNC Park has a neutral 100 Park Run Factor, but with temperatures in the low 80s with a 10 mph wind blowing out, we could see a 5-10% boost in run environment.
This is a high powered offense, clicking on all cylinders, facing a struggling pitcher, who’s kryptonite may be their greatest strength.
The Pirates also have a below average defense with Thursday's projected starters at -4 FRV. Sean also projects the Pittsburgh bullpen as just 19th, while they have the 10th worst bullpen estimators over the last 30 days.
Unfortunately, at the current price, I’m only considering this a lean, but it’s a small slate and it could move into playable territory at over 4.5 (-135 or better) or 5.5 (+120 or better).
Pick: J.Wrobleski over 4.5 strikeouts -130, 0.65u (Bet to -170), Lean Dodgers over 4.5 TT (-135 or better) or 5.5 TT (+120 or better)
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, June 11
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- Marlins -112, 1u (Bet to -125)
- Z.Matthews over 4.5 Strikeouts -140, 0.7u (Bet to -150 or 5.5 +130 or better)
- J.Wrobleski over 4.5 strikeouts -130, 0.65u (Bet to -170)
- Lean Dodgers over 4.5 TT (-135 or better) or over 5.5 (+120 or better)
