Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, June 20.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Yankees -166 (F5), 0.83u (Bet to -175)
- Padres +120, 0.5u (Bet to +115)
- Padres/Rangers under 7.5 (-104), 0.52u (Bet through 7.5)
- Brewers +120 (F5), 1u (Bet to +105)
- Brewers/Braves under 7.5 (-106), 0.53u (Bet through 7.5)
- Pirates/Rockies over 10 (-115), 1.15u (Bet to 10.5)
- Orioles +210, 0.5u (Bet to +200)
- C.Early over 5.5 strikeouts (-154), 0.77u (Bet to -200 or 6.5 to -120)
Reds @ Yankees Picks
With temperatures in the low 80s and potentially 15 mph wind out to right, similar to Friday night, Saturday afternoon appears to be some great offensive baseball weather in the Bronx. The Yankees quickly took advantage of the conditions with two of their lefties sending the ball over the right field wall in the early innings on Friday.
On Saturday, they’ll be attacking a LHP. I don’t think it’ll matter.
In just under 500 innings, Andrew Abbott has made a career of running his ERA (3.50) a run below his xFIP (4.63) and SIERA (4.52) and even half a run below his xERA (3.94) without anyone being able to figure out why, especially pitching in a terrible park.
He’s doing it again this year with a 3.95 ERA , but the lowest strand rate of his career (77.6%), worst K-BB (6.4%) and poor pitch modeling (4.55 Bot ERA, 95 Pitching+).
He hasn’t gone beyond six innings in any start this season and all three of his quality starts over his last six outings have been with three runs allowed and increased barrel (8.1%) and hard hit rates (40.4%) over that span.
Now he has to face the Yankees who have a 128 wRC+ at home and 121 against LHP. Even without Judge, the projected lineup has a 112 wRC+ over the last month and 124 wRC+ (.194 ISO) against southpaws since last year.
Will Warren has pitched similarly to Abbott over the last month with a 5.48 SIERA and .315 xwOBA allowed.
Part of the problem is four straight road starts, three of them in positive run environments (Sacramento, Toronto and Kansas City) and the other in Cleveland, where he had to face a lineup full of LHBs, against whom he struggles (.332 wOBA, .337 xwOBA since last year).
He still has season indicators more than a run better than Abbbott, more than doubling his opponent's K-BB (16.7%) with a better contact profile (5.2% Barrels/BBE, 36.2 HardHit%).
Importantly, the Reds can’t exploit Warren’s platoon issues and will likely run six to seven RHBs out on Saturday. Batters from that side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Warren since 2025. If Cincinnati does decide to jam whatever LHBs they can find into the lineup, they won’t be good LHBs.
Meanwhile, the Reds have just an 89 wRC+ against RHP this year and their 93 wRC+ on the road will further decline Friday (they’re being shutout in the 9th).
The Yankees also have a very large bullpen edge in this game too, but I find the F5 price (-166 FD) to be more actionable.
Picks: Yankees -166 (F5), 0.83u (Bet to -175)
Padres @ Rangers Picks
Since I’ve posted that unders in this park “are hitting at a two to one rate this year (21-10-1). It’s a 9.15 unit profit and 30% ROI for single unit plays” on Thursday, there were 12 runs scored that night and 10 just in the first inning on Friday.
I’m not stopping, but it’s not just about the park, which at 15% below average, is the most negative run environment in the league.
Walker Buehler was considered toast by this time last year.
It was his second season back from Tommy John and nothing was happening. Heck, he was even getting shelled in his first seven starts this year and only kept his job because the Padres didn’t have anybody else healthy.
He scuffled through another few starts with marginal results, but then something unexpected started happening.
After averaging 93.8 mph on his fastball, Buehler sat at 94.4 mph against the Phillies on May 28th. Then 95.1 mph in Philly in his next start.
Now he has a nice little four start stretch at 94.6 mph. Still not his heyday velocity, but more than half a mph up from last season.
And let’s talk about the results of those last four starts: a 15.3 K-BB% and 57.1 GB%. The contact profile still won’t win any awards, but this would be a guy you’re not terrified to send out there.
Put him in the best park against an offense with an 88 wRC+ at home (all stats through Thursday) and a projected lineup with an 89 wRC+ against RHP since last year (without Seager or Carter), along with a projected 21 FRV (Fielding Run Value) behind him and the chances of a quality start look good.
Opposing Buehler, Nathan Eovaldi’s 4.23 ERA is about two-thirds of a run worse than contact neutral estimators (3.59 SIERA, 3.54 xFIP), but below a 4.65 FIP and even a 4.40 xERA.
The good news is that the 20.5 HR/FB is not sustainable and I'm willing to gamble the xERA won't remain that high either (as long as he's healthy).
Eovaldi still has a more than formidable 17.1 K-BB%. He’s allowed 19 runs over his last 32.2 innings, but that’s while going seven innings three times and having 63.6% of his barrels leaving the yard.
Only one of those starts were at home. He allowed six base runners and five runs against the Astros.
This is a great spot against the Padres, who come into Friday night with an 85 wRC+ on the road and 86 wRC+ against RHP before busting out in the first inning on Friday.
Neither the Texas defense nor bullpen are as strong as San Diego, but they’re not terrible either.
Having a pitcher friendly umpire scheduled (John Bacon) doesn't hurt either.
We’re double dipping in Texas with the Padres (+120 Bet 365) and another under (7.5 -104)
Picks: Padres +120, 0.5u (Bet to +115), under 7.5 (-104), 0.52u (Bet through 7.5)
Brewers @ Braves Picks
While Kyle Harrison struck out only three of 21 Phillies last time out, it was still a fine bounce back from a rough outing in a ridiculous park in Las Vegas that I wish we could ignore.
The thing to note about 23 of his 32 strikeouts over his last five starts coming in just two outings is that he’s had at least an 11.3 SwStr% in four of those five starts.
He hasn’t been 2.47 ERA good, but estimators ranging from a 2.85 Bot ERA (116 Pitching+) to a 3.39 xERA confirm that Harrison has broken out, combining a 23.3 K-BB% with a 31.5 HardHit%. The Brewers have helped him do this by raising his arm angle, increasing his iVB (induced vertical break).
Chris Sale hasn’t been 2.30 ERA good either, but his 2.81 FIP to 3.44 xERA is very similar to Harrion’s metrics and confirm he’s still going as strong as ever.
Now that we’ve established comparable pitchers (where I still give Sale a near quarter run edge), let’s talk about the offenses, specifically their performances against LHP.
The Braves are seven points higher (wRC+ through Thursday) as a team, but the Milwaukee projected lineup is nearly 40 points better against southpaws since last year.
A large part of that is Acuna being out. Harris remaining out would hurt too, but more defensively against a quality lefty.
The proof is that the projected Milwaukee lineup has a more than 50 point overall wRC+ edge over the last 30 days.
The Braves should have the better defense and they are at home. They also have bullpen estimators nearly two-thirds of a run better than the Brewers over the last 30 days, but BARTOLO rates them much closer, as the 4th and 6th best bullpens with almost no gap in wFIP.
As we double dip for the second time on Saturday, I find the full game line (+118) actionable, though less valuable than the F5 line (+120 FD), but either way, this should be a well pitched battle with an extremely pitcher friendly umpire scheduled (Ron Kulpa).
Picks: Brewers +120 (F5), 1u (Bet to +105), under 7.5 (-106), 0.53u (Bet through 7.5)
Pirates @ Rockies Picks
It’s Paul Skenes. I get it. He doesn’t have an estimator reaching three except a 3.22 Bot ERA that’s complimented by a 112 Pitching+.
He’s great, yet I’m backing the over.
Let’s go through several reasons.
First, the park. It’s a 25% boost to run scoring without considering weather, which, as currently forecast, may add an additional 3-4% boost (see BARTOLO below). Adam Hamari may take a small portion of that back, but an eight run game somewhere else is a 10 run game here.
Next, the Colorado offense has not been as bad as they have been in recent seasons. They still somehow have just an 84 wRC+ at home, but a 96 wRC+ against RHP, while the projected lineup has a 106 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 107 wRC+ against RHP since last season.
The Pittsburgh defense is also bottom third of the league (-8 Runs Prevented & OAA). The projected defense has accumulated -8 FRV. The Pirates also own BARTOLO’s 23rd ranked bullpen.
Finally, Tomoyuki Sugano has a 4.54 ERA that’s still far ahead of estimators ranging from a 4.96 Bot ERA (88 Pitching+) to a 7.20 xERA.
Coors batters have a .358 wOBA against him this year (5.3 K-BB%), LHBs, of which he’s expected to face roughly 18 times on Saturday, have a .406 wOBA (0.0 K-BB%) against him at Coors.
And once Sugano leaves, it doesn't get much better coming out of the Colorado bullpen.
The Pirates have the same 113 against RHIP this season that their projected lineup averages since last season.
So, yes, over 10 (-115) with the expectation that the Pirates will be doing more of the scoring. I’d play to 10.5, but cut to 0.5u above 10.
Picks: Over 10 (-115), 1.15u (Bet to 10.5)
Orioles @ Dodgers Picks
This is one I haven't recorded in the app yet because I plan on waiting to see if this line goes much higher.
The Dodgers are at home and Yoshinobu Yamamoto is on the mound. I'm not concerned as much with missing the play in the rare circumstance it drops below +200 as much as I'd be happier the more the line increased.
Trevor Rogers has not followed up on his monster half season with the Orioles last year. Although his 5.86 ERA is due some regression with a .310 BABIP and 61.6 LOB%, his best non-pitch modeling estimator (4.37 xERA) is just shy of 1.5 runs less.
There is some optimism in a 3.87 Bot ERA, but the 98 Pitching+ is a bit conflicting.
No doubt Yamamoto (3.31 SIERA & ERA) is the far superior pitcher, even if he's due more than half a run of regression on his 2.52 ERA (.219 BABIP, 82 LOB%).
Its' beyond the starting pitchers where things start to get interesting.
The Dodgers are clearly in their inferior split against LHP even with a respectable 105 wRC+. The Orioles are three points higher against RHP.
The projected lineups tell a similar story with the Dodgers only three points higher against LHP than the Orioles against RHP since last year. Both projected lineups have a 119 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Offensively, smaller than expected edge to the Dodgers.
Defensively, the Dodgers beat the Orioles by 23 Runs Prevented and 29 OAA. However, with their inferior offensive split, the Dodgers may also be placing their inferior defense on the field (5 FRV) compared to Baltimore's better defensive lineup (7 FRV).
Lastly, the Dodgers do have the better bullpen, but it's only an eight team and quarter of a run gap via BARTOLO and the same quarter run gap by last 30 day estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA).
Both lineups even project 0 BRR (Base Running Runs).
Large starting pitching edge for the Dodgers, but closer than you might expect everywhere else. I'm waiting to see where the market goes, but will probably be playing the Orioles at +200 or better at some point on Saturday, barring any significant lineup surprises.
Picks: Orioles +210, 0.5u (Bet to +200)
Orioles @ Mariners Picks
Here’s something I can’t believe it’s taken me this long to realize.
Let me restate that.
I can’t believe it’s taken me this long to quantify.
The Mariners are generally in a situation, being so predominantly left-handed, that they often play several LHBs against same-handed pitching.
We also have a park that boosts strikeouts some 15-20%, depending on the handedness of the batter (Statcast 3 year rolling park factors).
This puts us in a situation where LHPs with solid strikeout rates against LHBs are in an excellent spot to exceed underpriced strikeout props, especially if they’re likely to get some umpiring help.
Connerly Early has struck out 31.1% of LHBs in 18 career starts. Admittedly, fewer this year in 14 starts (23.5% of 81) than last year in four (59.1% of 22), but remaining above average.
The Mariners started four LHBs against Ranger Suarez on Friday and are projected to run out another four on Saturday. The expectation is for Early to face LHBs around 10 times.
Based on the number of left and right-handed batters Early might face, I project his park boost somewhere close to 19%.
Scheduled umpire Paul Clemons not only suppresses run scoring slightly, but has a top 10 K/9 among major league umpires, translating into a near 7% bump.
That’s potentially a huge boost for Early on Saturday night.
Picks: C.Early over 5.5 strikeouts (-154), 0.77u (Bet to -200 or 6.5 to -120)
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, June 20
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- Yankees -166 (F5), 0.83u (Bet to -175)
- Padres +120, 0.5u (Bet to +115)
- Padres/Rangers under 7.5 (-104), 0.52u (Bet through 7.5)
- Brewers +120 (F5), 1u (Bet to +105)
- Brewers/Braves under 7.5 (-106), 0.53u (Bet through 7.5)
- Pirates/Rockies over 10 (-115), 1.15u (Bet to 10.5)
- Orioles +210, 0.5u (Bet to +200)
- C.Early over 5.5 strikeouts (-154), 0.77u (Bet to -200 or 6.5 to -120)
