Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Sunday, June 7.
MLB Picks, Predictions for Sunday, June 7
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- Yankees F5 ML (-188)
- Braves Spread (+138)
- Ronald Acuña Jr. Over 1.5 HRR (-155)
- Ronald Acuña Jr. Home Run (+410)
- Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+250)
- Blue Jays F5 ML (-138)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 TB (-105)
- Otto Lopez Over 1.5 HRR (-160)
- Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 HRR (-110)
- Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 HRR (+135)
- Noah Cameron Under 2.5 ER (-150)
- Cardinals F5 ML (-135)
- Jordan Walker Over 1.5 TB (+100)
- Guardians vs Rangers NRFI (-130)
- Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 HRR (-165)
- Jackson Chourio Double (+200)
- Diamondbacks F5 ML (-128)
- Padres ML (-110)
- Mike Trout Over 1.5 HRR (+105)
Red Sox vs Yankees Picks
The Yankees and Red Sox will duke it out on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium. This one is extra fun because we get a pitching matchup of two highly-touted prospects.
Cam Schlittler has been one of the league’s best this year, running a 1.89 ERA and .86 WHIP across his first 13 starts. While Early hasn’t put up similarly stunning numbers, he has posted a quality 3.26 ERA across his first 12 outings.
Unfortunately for the Sox, I still think the Yankees have the pitching advantage on Sunday.
Schlittler is coming off his worst start of the season (4.1 IP, 5 ER vs. CLE), but I think this sets up as a prime bounce-back spot for him in his home park.
Pick: Yankees F5 ML (-188)
Pirates vs Braves Picks
The Braves host the Pirates in the last of this three-game homestand at Truist Park. On the mound, Bryce Elder matches up with Bubba Chandler.
Elder looks really good, posting a 2.63 ERA across his first 13 outings.
Meanwhile, Chandler is heading in the opposite direction. He was a highly-touted prospect for his triple-digit fastball and nasty slider, but he’s struggled his way to a 4.89 ERA this season — his command can be questionable (15% walk rate).
Chandler has allowed seven earned runs over his past 10 innings, and I think he’ll likely continue to struggle against Atlanta’s loaded lineup — the Braves' lineup is a top-five unit in almost every statistical category.
I think the Braves hop all over Chandler in a multi-run victory, and I suspect that Ronald Acuna Jr. will get in on the fun. If Chandler gets behind in the count, he’ll likely leave a four-seam fastball right in the zone, and that’s where Ronald shines.
Pick: Braves Spread | Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 HRR | Ronald Acuna Jr. Home Run (+2000)
White Sox vs Phillies Picks
The White Sox and Phillies finish off a three-game set at Citizens Bank on Sunday. Aaron Nola will take the mound for Philly, while David Sandlin will take the mound for the visiting ChiSox.
Sandlin is making just his third career MLB start, with his first two starts resulting in polar-opposite outcomes — he spun six one-run innings against the Twins in his debut, then allowed eight runs over four innings against the Twins just five days later.
Sandlin pitched very well in the Minors, but I still don’t think we have a big enough sample size at this level to properly rate him.
That said, Sandlin throws a lot of fastballs and struggles against left-handed batters. That spells trouble against a guy like Kyle Schwarber, who’s slugging nearly .700 against fastballs behind 13 home runs (of his 23 total).
I think Schwarber launches one of Sandlin’s fastballs over the fence on Sunday.
Pick: Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+250)
Orioles vs Blue Jays Picks
The Blue Jays will host the Orioles in the finale of a three-game set at Rogers Centre on Sunday, and I can’t wait for this matchup.
Kevin Gausman takes the mound for Toronto, and he continues to pitch like the staff’s Ace, running a 3.36 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across his first 13 starts.
His counterpart, Shane Baz, has flashed moments of brilliance behind an overpowering four-seam fastball, but he’s also been one of the league’s most volatile starting pitchers behind shaky command and an inability to avoid hard contact.
While the O’s believe in Baz’s upside, as evidenced by his new five-year contract, I don’t. Instead, I’ll be fading him against Toronto's tough lineup.
Given the Jays have a definitive SP edge, a superior lineup, and are playing at their home ballpark in Toronto, I feel great backing them on the F5 ML.
I will also be backing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the props market. In 15 head-to-head plate appearances against Baz, Vladdy has recorded five hits, including a home run.
Pick: Blue Jays F5 ML | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 TB (+181)
Rays vs Marlins Picks
The Marlins host the Rays in the last of a three-game set. The pitching matchup is between Sandy Alcantara and Griffin Jax.
Sandy has had an up-and-down season, but — for the most part — I still have faith in his arsenal and versatility.
I’m more concerned about Jax, who’s posted a 4.76 ERA across 18 appearances. It’s also worth mentioning that he was drilled in the back by a liner last week, leaving his start early after just two innings. He went on to allow six runs across four frames in his very next start.
I’m worried about Jax’s form and health entering this start and am looking to fade him. Why not target Otto Lopez?
Jax has a nice sweeper that he uses to force whiffs, but Lopez is the league’s best contact hitter (.322 average) with elite plate discipline.
Pick: Otto Lopez Over 1.5 HRR (-160)
Mariners vs Tigers Picks
The Tigers host the Mariners on Sunday in the last of a three-game set at Comerica Park. On the hill, Jack Flaherty will match up against Luis Castillo.
These two pitchers are both past their prime, but that’s far more evident with Castillo, who is running a 5.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP through 12 starts.
I want to fade Castillo, so I’ll go to bat with Randy Arozarena, who is 4-for-10 lifetime against Seattle’s righty with two homers and a double.
Although Arozarena hasn’t shown as much pop at the plate this season, he still gets on base plenty behind a .280 average.
Pick: Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 HRR (-110)
Athletics vs Astros Picks
The A’s and Astros square off in the final of a three-game set at Daikin Park. Gage Jump makes just his third career Major League start for the A’s, while Mike Burrows will take the mound for the home side.
Burrows has been miserable this season, posting a 5.66 ERA and 1.54 WHIP across 68 frames. He just has a lackluster arsenal headlined by a mid-90s fastball, and his command is far from elite.
Burrows also has very stark splits, especially this season (.435 wOBA allowed vs. LHBs, .302 wOBA allowed vs. RHBs). Southpaws have slugged .780 off his four-seam this season.
Therefore, this sets up as a prime spot to back one of my favorite hitters, Nick Kurtz.
Kurtz has been white-hot for more than a month, running a 177 wRC+ since late April. He crushes right-handed hitting (career 199 wRC+ vs. RHPs, 97 wRC+ vs. LHPs) and is super-patient at the plate (21% walk rate).
Kurtz should be able to draw walks and crush left-handed fastballs against Burrows in this game.
Pick: Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 HRR (+135)
Royals vs Twins Picks
The Twins host the Royals in the finale of a three-game homestand at Target Field. And with Noah Cameron and Connor Prelipp on the mound, I think this will be a pitcher’s duel.
Yeah, Noah Cameron has struggled this season with a 4.22 ERA, but I have all the faith in the world that he’ll start to trend closer to the 2.99 ERA he posted last season.
I love how versatile his six-pitch arsenal is. He’s got three fastballs (four-seam, sinker, cutter), an uber-efficient changeup that consistently fools right-handed hitters, and two other solid off-speed pitches (curveball, slider).
Cameron won’t overpower hitters, but he can mix it up and keep everyone off balance.
I think he can do that against the Twins, who could very likely be without Byron Buxton for a second consecutive day — he left Friday’s game after running into a wall in center field.
Pick: Noah Cameron Under 2.5 ER (-150)
Reds vs Cardinals Picks
The Cardinals host the Reds to finish off a three-game set at Busch Stadium. Michael McGreevy will toe the mound for the home team, while Rhett Lowder will start for the visitors in his first action since returning from the 15-day IL.
McGreevy has been the far better pitcher, running a 2.98 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across 12 starts. He’s slipped recently, but he tossed six innings of two-run ball against the Rangers in his most recent start.
Meanwhile, Lowder has been bad all season, before and after his injury — he was shelved in early May with right shoulder inflammation. I didn’t have faith in his 5.40 ERA before the shoulder ailment, and I don’t have faith now.
So, I’ll be backing the Cardinals on both the F5 ML and the player prop market, wherein I think this is a great matchup for Jordan Walker, who hits sinkers, four-seamers, and sliders very well — Lowder’s main three-pitch mix.
Pick: Cardinals F5 ML | Jordan Walker Over 1.5 TB (+185)
Guardians vs Rangers Picks
The Rangers and Guardians square off on Sunday to finish off a three-game set at Globe Life Field.
In a game where Joey Cantillo will battle Jacob deGrom at one of baseball’s most pitcher-friendly parks, I expect runs to come at a premium.
Although deGrom isn’t the pitcher he once was, he’s still running a 3.48 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
Meanwhile, Cantillo has been solid over the past few seasons, running a sub-3.50 ERA since the start of last year. It’s also worth mentioning that he’s dominated Texas in the past two head-to-head meetings, recording a 2.50 ERA with 14 strikeouts across 15 innings.
These are two high-upside starters who should get out to a hot start.
Pick: NRFI (-130)
Brewers vs Rockies Picks
The Brewers and Rockies meet up at the hitter’s paradise that is Coors Field on Sunday.
Kyle Freeland takes the bump for Colorado in the middle of a career-worst season (48 IP, 8.06 ERA, 1.71 WHIP).
Up in the thin air, the Brew Crew should feast against Freeland.
Jackson Chourio recently returned to Milwaukee’s lineup after missing the first month of the season due to a hairline fracture sustained in the World Baseball Classic. Since returning to MLB action, the 22-year-old outfielder is slashing .295/.358/.482, good for a 137 wRC+.
Chourio is also seeing the ball very well this week, blasting two homers on Thursday against the Giants.
Even better, these two have a history. In eight career head-to-head at-bats against Freeland, Chourio has three extra-base hits (double, triple, homer).
Pick: Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 HRR | Jackson Chourio Double (+244)
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Picks
The Snakes host the Nats on Sunday to conclude a three-game set at Chase Field. On the bump, Michael Soroka will battle Cade Cavalli.
Soroka is having a full breakout campaign. He’s seemingly finally put all those injuries behind him, running a 3.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP after 12 outings this season.
Cavalli has been in decent form as well, running a 3.62 ERA across 13 outings.
But I’m not buying Cavalli as much as I’m buying Soroka. Cavalli has flashed at moments, but Soroka’s underlying indicators are far better (2.96 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, 3.96 botERA).
Arizona has a significant pitching advantage in this matchup.
Pick: Diamondbacks F5 ML (-128)
Mets vs Padres Picks
The Mets and Padres meet up to finish off a three-game set at PetCo Park. The pitching matchup features Randy Vasquez against Sean Manaea.
These two clubs got off to shaky starts, but while the Padres have worked their way back to two games over .500, the Mets are still in the NL East basement.
The Mets are in worse shape. I also think the Padres will have a solid pitching advantage on Sunday, in addition to home-field advantage (the Mets are 13-20 on the road this season).
Vasquez is quietly having an excellent season, running a 3.31 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through 65 innings of work. I’m really high on him for the remainder of the season.
Sean Manaea’s 5.08 ERA is slightly inflated from a few blow-up starts in April, but I’m not exactly interested in backing a bulk reliever who’s allowed five earned runs across his past five appearances.
Instead, I’ll fade Manaea and bank on my guy Vasquez piecing together another solid outing.
Pick: Padres ML (-110)
Angels vs Dodgers Picks
The Dodgers host the cross-town Angels at Dodger Stadium on Sunday. On the mound, Emmet Sheehan hosts Jose Soriano.
Soriano has been throwing at an elite level this season, running a 2.72 ERA and 1.21 WHIP across 13 starts. Meanwhile, his counterpart has struggled this season, posting a subpart 4.50 ERA across 11 starts — although his 1.16 WHIP and 3.53 xFIP indicate there might be some positive regression in his future.
That said, I can’t give Sheehan the benefit of the doubt yet, especially with how inconsistent he’s looked this year.
In fact, I want to fade him, and I think targeting Mike Trout in the prop market is a good approach.
Trout is one of the most patient hitters in the game, often causing opposing pitchers to fall behind in the count after missing with breaking balls. Sheehan will fall into that trap, often falling back on his four-seam fastball when he misses spots with his slider.
Whether Trout connects on a high fastball or draws a walk, I think he’ll be on the basepaths plenty on Sunday.
Pick: Mike Trout Over 1.5 HRR (+105)
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, June 7
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Yankees F5 ML (-188)
- Braves Spread (+138)
- Ronald Acuña Jr. Over 1.5 HRR (-155)
- Ronald Acuña Jr. Home Run (+410)
- Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+250)
- Blue Jays F5 ML (-138)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 TB (-105)
- Otto Lopez Over 1.5 HRR (-160)
- Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 HRR (-110)
- Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 HRR (+135)
- Noah Cameron Under 2.5 ER (-150)
- Cardinals F5 ML (-135)
- Jordan Walker Over 1.5 TB (+100)
- Guardians vs Rangers NRFI (-130)
- Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 HRR (-165)
- Jackson Chourio Double (+200)
- Diamondbacks F5 ML (-128)
- Padres ML (-110)
- Mike Trout Over 1.5 HRR (+105)
