Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Sean Paul has that job for Wednesday, June 24, including Guardians vs White Sox at 2:10 PM ET on MLB.TV.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Guardians vs White Sox Under 8 (-110 or Better)
- Angels ML (-150 or Better)
- Phillies ML (-160 or Better)
Guardians vs White Sox Picks
Let's get The Leadoff started with an Under.
I'm expecting a low-scoring battle between a pair of AL Central foes in the White Sox and Guardians.
I have zero faith in Cleveland's lineup. The Guardians lost Jose Ramirez to a hand injury seven games ago. Since then, Cleveland ranks 28th among MLB lineups with a 72 wRC+ — that includes a .190 batting average (29th) and a league-worst 32% strikeout rate. P
utting the ball in play should be the Guardians' strength, and their lineup is considerably worse sans Ramirez.
Meanwhile, the White Sox rank 24th with an 85 wRC+ during the same span, and that includes a league-worst 4.9% walk rate. Their inability to draw walks and remain patient should let Guardians hurler Tanner Bibee provide his club with six or seven innings.
Bibee is back in form after a shaky start, posting a 2.21 ERA in his last three starts, cutting his season ERA to 4.05. His underlying numbers don't jump off the page, sporting a 4.57 xERA and 4.66 FIP.
However, Bibee has the arsenal to contain a White Sox lineup that's adopted a home-run-or-bust approach of late.
On the flip side, Erick Fedde is on the mound for the White Sox. Chicago has made life easier for the veteran pitcher, sometimes pitching him behind an opener or only letting him face the lineup twice. He gave up two or fewer runs in five straight outings, pitching four or more innings in four of those starts.
Everything Fedde does is contrary to what I discussed with the Guardians in their section. He's running a 6.44 K/9, but his sinker-sweeper combo should force the Guardians into weak contact.
Picks: Under 8.5 (8 -110 or Better)
Orioles vs Angels Picks
You won't find a bigger pitching advantage on Wednesday than the Angels trotting out Jose Soriano against the Orioles rookie Trey Gibson.
This handicap centers around fading Gibson. His big league career is off to a bad start, posting a 5.81 ERA with a 6.18 xERA and 5.61 FIP across 26 1/3 innings. He just doesn't have good enough stuff to stick in the bigs. He was extremely walk-prone in the Minors, and that's continued at this level. The larger concern is that Gibson's swing-and-miss stuff fell off a cliff in the bigs, as he ranks in the 14th percentile among qualified pitchers in whiff and strikeout rate.
He's a total fade until he actually shows he's an MLB pitcher.
The Angels' offense isn't anything too special, but all they have to do is make Gibson work, and they're in good shape. They rank 11th among MLB lineups with a 113 wRC+.
The lineup is without its biggest weapon, Mike Trout. But some of the younger bats, such as Nolan Schanuel and Zach Neto, have picked up the slack in Trout's stead. Plus, veterans like Jose Siri and Donovan Walton have given them an unexpected jolt of energy.
Let's pivot to Soriano.
He looked like a Cy Young candidate early on, but he's posted a 4.93 ERA, 5.07 xERA, and 4.96 FIP over his past nine starts. Walks are also an issue for Soriano, as his stuff is often too nasty for his own good.
Lucky for him, the Orioles have an aggressive lineup with free swingers like Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso.
That should keep Soriano in the game for a long time.
Picks: Angels ML (-150 or Better)
Phillies vs Nationals Picks
The Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the hill against the Nationals' Miles Mikolas after a thrilling road win for Philly on Tuesday.
Nola is due for some positive regression. He's been one of the more unlucky pitchers in MLB over the past two years. This year, his ERA is 5.71 with a 4.24 xERA and 4.63 FIP.
Even the underlying numbers aren't ace-like, but it's a lot better than his ERA, which is closing on six.
He should have a soft landing against a Nationals lineup that ranks 19th among MLB lineups with a 105 wRC+ in June. The trio of James Wood, CJ Abrams, and Luis Garcia is doing its part, but bats like Curtis Mead, Daylen Lile, and Jacob Young have come back down to earth after a hot start.
If Nola can contain the top three in Washington's order, he should have a successful outing.
I also think the Phillies should do well against Mikolas, who's been very feast-or-famine. In his past four outings, he had two scoreless ones and two where he gave up five-plus runs.
That seems par for the course for a pitcher who owns a 5.47 ERA with a 4.75 xERA and 5.44 FIP. He strikes out just 5.23 per nine and gives up a brutal 1.95 HR/9, which could be his demise against a Phillies lineup that can hit for power.
Picks: Phillies ML (-160 or Better)
Paul's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, June 24
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Guardians vs White Sox Under 8 (-110 or Better)
- Angels ML (-150 or Better)
- Phillies ML (-160 or Better)
