Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Kevork Mahserejian has that job for Friday, May 22.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Friday, May 22
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- Miami Marlins ML (+114)
- Bubba Chandler Under 4 Strikeouts (PK)
- Justin Wrobleski Over 1.5 Walks (PK)
- Jeffrey Springs Over 16.5 Outs (-130)
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Picks
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 8 -102o / -119u | -126 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8 -102o / -119u | +105 |
Eury Perez is one of the unluckier starters in baseball this season. His 5.33 ERA is backed by a 4.49 xFIP and a 4.22 SIERA. Neither peripheral stat is categorically "good", but a significant difference leads to eventual regression.
The Marlins starter has the stuff to be a much better pitcher, yet he has not put it together. Fortunately, he does not have to be much different to succeed in tonight's game. Perez is a much different pitcher at home than on the road. Whether it be due to comfort and/or trust, we cannot say, but there is a notable improvement at LoanDepot Park.
- Perez at home: 3.86 ERA, 18.6% K-BB, 1.18 WHIP, 3.89 xFIP
- Perez on the road: 7.03 ERA, 7.1% K-BB, 1.68 WHIP, 5.18 xFIP
The samples for both splits are small (under 30 IP), but the difference is intriguing as Perez does not have bad luck driving his road stats.
Furthermore, facing a Mets offense ranking fifth-worst against right-handed pitching this season should help him bounce back.
The Mets will be trotting out opener Tobias Myers, with long-man Sean Manaea piggybacking. Myers has pitched well this season, but in shorter stints. He has not thrown three innings since April 10.
Meanwhile, Sean Manaea is one of the worst pitchers in baseball, with declining velocity and stuff. With the Marlins ranking league-average against RHP and LHP, they will be ready for either pitcher.
Both teams have rested bullpens, but the pitching advantage lies heavily with the Marlins.
Pick: Miami Marlins ML (+114, BetRivers)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -157 | 8 -110o / -110u | +138 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -110o / -110u | -167 |
Bubba Chandler's leash is shortening by the start. The former top pitching prospect has fallen apart in 2026 due to a myriad of issues. His strikeouts are down, while his walks and hard-hit rate are up.
Chandler's groundball rate has cratered to a career-low 32.8%, and his 1.50 HR/9 is a career-worst. This is far from the pitcher we witnessed flash at the end of 2025, albeit with a 4.02 ERA.
Regardless, we will use his down season to take advantage of his pitching props. Chandler has struck out more than four batters twice this season through nine starts, while going under four in three starts.
He was just pulled from his most recent start after facing a season-low 16 batters and could have a short leash again today.
The Blue Jays' offense does not rank well vs RHP (25th), but they do not strike out. Toronto's 18.7% K rate vs RHP is the best in baseball.
It could be argued that Chandler goes deep enough to exceed four strikeouts against this putrid offense, but his past three opponents, the Phillies, Giants, and Diamondbacks, ranked poorly vs. RHP as well. He did not post more than four strikeouts in any of those starts.
Pick: Bubba Chandler Under 4 Strikeouts (PrizePicks)
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Picks
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +147 | 8.5 -105o / -114u | -112 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -179 | 8.5 -105o / -114u | -107 |
Justin Wrobleski is one of the more confusing pitchers of the 2026 season. He has been excellent on the surface, with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. However, his peripherals tell another story.
Despite an xERA under 4.00, his 4.83 xFIP and 4.90 SIERA are concerning. Wrobleski can only go so long with a 38.1% groundball rate and 2.8% HR-to-flyball ratio.
The piper will eventually come calling for Wrobleski's home runs, but that is not what we are betting on. Ideally, Wrobleski continues his run of dominance against the Brewers today, but at a cost of some walks.
The Brewers rank 26th against LHP, yet earn the sixth-most walks against them. That is a good combination for this prop.
If Wrobleski continues pitching well enough to go deep in the game against a team struggling against LHP, he should crack this line, despite only posting more than one walk in two of his seven starts.
Pick: Justin Wrobleski Over 1.5 Walks (PrizePicks)
Oakland Athletics vs San Diego Padres Picks
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -186 | 8 -110o / -110u | +113 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +153 | 8 -110o / -110u | -136 |
Jeffrey Springs is the anti-Eury Perez. He is a significantly better pitcher on the road compared to at home. Springs has an ERA under 3.50 since 2025 on the road, while his ERA on the road is above 4.50.
Despite better results on the road, Springs' K-BB is better at home. As a heavy flyball pitcher (46.6%), he cannot rely on weak contact in the hitter-friendly confines of Sacramento's home park (second-highest park factor).
In a pitcher-friendly stadium like Petco Park (fourth-lowest park factor), Springs can be at ease on the mound and play his game.
The Padres rank worst in baseball with a .265 wOBA against LHP and second-worst by their 69 wRC+. While their walk rate vs LHP is fourth-worst, their strikeout rate is ninth-highest.
Assuming Springs continues to keep his strikeouts on the road low, he should command enough easy outs to get past the line on his outs.
Pick: Jeffrey Springs Over 16.5 Outs (-130, PrizePicks)
Mahserejian's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, May 22
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Miami Marlins ML (+114)
- Bubba Chandler Under 4 Strikeouts (PK)
- Justin Wrobleski Over 1.5 BB (PK)
- Jeffrey Springs Over 16.5 Outs (-130)
