The MLB Division Series begins on Saturday, October 5, and our baseball experts have three MLB picks and predictions for ALDS and NLDS games.
Find MLB best bets and props for Padres vs Dodgers Game 1 and more.
MLB Best Bets, Picks, Props & Predictions — 10/5
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:38 p.m. | |
| 8:38 p.m. | |
  | 6:38 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Royals vs Yankees Best Bet: Royals in Trouble Against Cole
By Tony Sartori
Right-hander Gerrit Cole takes the mound for the New York Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS, and he should be a good candidate to back. In 17 starts this season, the former first overall pick posted an 8-5 record with a 3.41 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
His analytics were equally strong as the right-hander ranks in the 65th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA and strikeout rate. It is that final category that I am looking to target in the prop market.
Cole's strikeout prop can be found at 5.5, a total he surpassed in six of his last nine starts. He is 5-3 over that stretch with a 2.15 ERA.
This success is likely to continue against the Kansas City Royals, a team Cole is 4-1 against in eight career meetings with a 2.77 ERA. He recorded six or more strikeouts in all eight of those outings.
Looking at it from the other side, this Royals lineup possesses a 33.8% strikeout rate and 32% whiff rate through 157 combined career plate appearances against Cole.
Pick: Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-116)
Kenny Ducey's Padres vs Dodgers Best Bet: How to Bet Shohei Ohtani in Game 1
By Kenny Ducey
There’s always risk in the total bases market when you’ve got the potential for multiple walks, but there’s more than enough here to believe in Shohei Ohtani hitting this prop in his first MLB postseason game.
The National League MVP favorite checks all the boxes here.
He’s gone 4-for-15 against Dylan Cease in his career with a double and two home runs, and those at-bats have produced a .385 Expected Batting Average (xBA) and 1.037 Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG).
He’ll also be up against a “power” pitcher as classified by Baseball-Reference, which is one to rank in the top third of the league in strikeouts plus walks. In that split, he’s hitting .298 and slugging .608 with 11 homers, 12 doubles and two triples to go for extra bases on 25 of his 47 hits.
Cease’s high tendency to pitch to the three true outcomes could mean Ohtani fails to put one or two balls in play against the Padres’ ace, but the good news here is that the Padres’ bullpen closed the year ranking third-best in walk rate, which should give us a good chance of waiting in hope that a ball off the bat of Ohtani finds the gap – or the seats.
Ohtani had a monster close to his regular season, with a .628 average and 1.186 slugging percentage in his last 10 games — there is likely no better bat to back on Saturday.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
William Boor's Padres vs Dodgers Best Bet: Padres Have Goods to Pull Off Upset
By William Boor
The Padres are absolutely on fire right now. After going an absurd 43-20 (.683) in the second half, San Diego cruised through the Wild Card Round and swept the Braves in two games.
Winners of nine of their past 12 games, the Padres are firing on all cylinders and I think they'll upset the Dodgers in the NLDS. Yes, the Dodgers have won five straight, including two against the Padres, and have Shohei Ohtani, but there are some weaknesses on their roster — mainly the pitching.
Not only did the Dodgers give up the fifth-most homers in baseball, but if we look at the second half of the season, the Dodgers ranked 16th in ERA (4.16) and were 20th in FIP (4.27). Meanwhile, the Padres were fourth (3.38) and second (3.49).
Los Angeles' Game 1 starter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, has given up six runs over eight innings in his past two starts, while Dylan Cease, San Diego's Game 1 starter, gave up three runs over five innings to the Dodgers in his final start of the season, but twirled a pair of scoreless starts (14 1/3 innings) prior to that.
There is no doubt that the Dodgers are loaded with talent, but the Padres are also full of stars and went 8-5 against the Dodgers this season, including 3-3 in Los Angeles.
The Padres certainly won't be intimidated by the Dodgers, or the moment.
At plus money, I love backing the Padres in the NLDS.
Pick: Padres to Win NLDS (+120)
