It's another huge Saturday on the diamond, chock full of afternoon games.
Read on for our MLB Picks, Predictions, and 3 best bets for Saturday, April 11.
MLB Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent the matchups our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:05 PM | |
  | 3:07 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
 | All Day | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Moneyline Picks
By Sean Paul
I'm taking the Diamondbacks.
Fading Walker is easy. I don't expect him to draw many more starts for a contending Phillies team if he continues to post some of the ugly numbers he's posting.
I get the Phillies are at home, but there's a real gap between these two, and Pfaadt is significantly better than Walker.
Read Paul's full Diamondbacks-Phillies preview here:
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-120 or Better)
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Twins vs Blue Jays Moneyline Predictions
By Matt Trollo
Without getting too concerned about Joe Ryan’s velocity, after opening up at 93.9 MPH in his first start, he’s sat at 92.2 MPH and 92.3 MPH in each of his last two.
That could certainly be cold weather in Kansas City and Minnesota, and besides getting smoked for four barrels in the first of those starts, there’s nothing out of line in his peripherals (19.7% K-BB). Pitch modeling is sending mixed signals (4.14 Bot ERA but 111 Pitching+), and it doesn’t provide any further insight.
Either way, his 24.3% ground-ball rate across three starts could be a problem against a contact-prone lineup in Toronto.
The Rogers Centre Home Run Park Factor jumped up to 118 last season (single season) after some hitter-friendly renovations. While the Blue Jays haven’t gotten off to the hottest start, they did put 10 runs on the board on Friday night, and their standard lineup against righties this year averages a .172 ISO against pitchers from that side since last year.
Eric Lauer came out of nowhere to post a career year, sustaining a 20.4% K-BB over 10 starts and 69 innings last year before trailing off and ending the year in the bullpen. Injuries have forced him into a starting role again this April, and we’ve gotten diverse results so far.
After striking out nine Athletics, Lauer walked three White Sox without a strikeout and did not make it past the second inning.
However, there were some extenuating circumstances: Lauer was suffering the aftereffects of a bout with the flu. He was down nearly three MPH.
We can probably throw that out, but even without expecting him to repeat his performance against the A’s, Lauer ended with both a 3.88 SIERA and xERA last year, which should be competent enough against a stars and scrubs Twins lineup against LHP.
Three projected Twins exceed a 145 wRC+ vs LHP since last year, but four also reside below 85.
Even a short outing from Lauer would give it over to a rested and effective Toronto bullpen with top 10 estimators (FIP/xFIP/SIERA) in the league so far, averaging around three and a half. Meanwhile, Jeff Hoffman and Tyler Rogers haven’t pitched since Wednesday. It would also have the added benefit of making the Twins adjust to right-handed pitching mid-game.
The Minnesota bullpen has neither been good (bottom third of the league estimators) nor rested. There was a note on social media on Friday about the Twins somehow building a bullpen without a single reliever averaging 95 MPH on their fastball.
The remaining factors also significantly bolster the Jays with a projected lineup Fielding Run Value of 36 and four Base Running Runs to Minnesota’s -15 and -2.
Read Trollo's full Opening Pitch column for Saturday here:
Pick: Blue Jays ML (-120 or Better)
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Astros vs Mariners Player Prop Pick
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 6.20 strikeouts for Luis Castillo.
Oddsmakers are implying 5.44 strikeouts, so I believe there is value.
If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 59% of the time, resulting in a 28% ROI with an expected value of $28.28 (based on a $100 wager).
This play is good down to at least -107.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Luis Castillo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-107 or Better)
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Zerillo's Full Action App Card for Saturday
Need more action on the diamond for Saturday? It's always wise to see what our guy Sean Zerillo is betting on!
If you haven't already, make sure you download the Action Network App to track all your best and tail all your favorite experts.
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