We have 16 games tonight and every team is in action.
We're on the lookout for the best betting value though, and the "Payoff Pitch" podcast has MLB picks andodds. So, let's get to the Payoff Pitch Predictions tonight.
Dive in below and listen to the full podcast now!
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:35 p.m. | Orioles +ML |
  | 7:20 p.m. | Braves +Matt Olson Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs |
Orioles ML vs. Blue Jays
6:35 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
I'm on the O's at -170, and I project this closer to -190.
I was wondering when Kyle Bradish became an Action Network guy and the answer is when he started throwing sinkers. He got rid of his easily-hittable four-seam fastball and moved to the sinker, which is nothing special but induces a whole lot of ground balls.
Bradish had a 60% ground-ball rate last season and is up to a whopping 90% this year through his first two starts. It's basically changed everything for him and propelled him to a fourth-place Cy Young finish last year.
His secondary stuff is incredible too. He has a good slider, curveball mix that he throws about 40% of the time.
We would like to think that the Blue Jays' lineup will come around at some point. They're one of the bottom two teams in exit velocity, which none of us expected. They have the 12th-highest ground-ball rate, but we expect these bats to be due for some positive regression.
The Orioles' bats are facing a friendly face in Chris Bassitt, who they bashed for 12 runs in 18 innings across two starts last year. Bassitt enters tonight with an expected ERA of 5+ in 40 innings, with a walk rate that's up and a strike rate that's down from a season ago.
I can see Bassitt getting walloped by this Baltimore lineup one again.
Pick: Orioles ML (-167)
Braves' Matt Olson Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs vs. Cubs
7:20 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
I also like Matt Olson to go yard in this spot.
Olson started out the season hot but has cooled off tremendously since then. He ranks in the 97th percentile of all hitters in hard-hit rate and in the 88th percentile of all hitters in barrel rate.
Everything that you could want from a hitter's metrics, Olson has, but he just hasn't been able to hit the long ball like he did a season ago.
I think this is a good spot to fade Jameson Taillon, who's been incredible to start the season. He's been fortunate in Chicago, starting in games with lots of wind while only allowing a barrel rate of 4%, which I expect to regress.
Since he doesn't strike out many batters or give up a lot of fly balls, I think Olson can do some damage tonight in Atlanta.
I think he's going to get a home run, but regardless, I love him to put together a couple bases, hits and RBIs.
Pick: Matt Olson Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
