Mondays are often slow on the MLB schedule, but this week is an exception as there are 10 games on the docket.
The large slate means ample betting opportunities are available and our MLB betting experts have come through with some MLB prop picks for tonight. So, let's see where they identified value and get right into today's MLB best bets.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:05 p.m. | |
  | 7:07 p.m. | |
  | 7:40 p.m. | |
  | 7:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Charlie Wright's Red Sox vs Rays Best Bet: Fade Houck
We're 2-for-2 on this prop this season, though this is the first time we're getting it at plus money.
It seems like the books are leaning into the matchup data from 2024, when Tampa Bay was a top-five strikeout team against right-handed pitching. However, the Rays have made more contact this season and their current lineup shouldn't be as strikeout-heavy.
Tanner Houck actually pitched decently last time out, holding Toronto to one earned run over 6 2/3 innings. He didn't get close to five strikeouts though. Houck has 10 strikeouts and seven walks over 16 1/3 innings. He's been hit incredibly hard (53.1% hard-hit rate) and has given up tons of contact. Houck's swinging-strike rate is a woeful 7.7% through three starts after he got just four whiffs against the Blue Jays. Houck posted a 16.1% strikeout rate from July through the end of last season (13 starts) and has picked up where he left off.
We aren't at the point of fully trusting team splits, but the Rays have the seventh-lowest K% against right-handed pitching this season. They have Danny Jansen (18.8% K% vs. RHP since 2024) taking the majority of the catching reps, pushing the high-strikeout Ben Rortvedt to the bench and the extremely high-strikeout Alex Jackson off the roster. Josh Lowe (31.7% K%) is on the Injured List and fresh faces Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and Jake Mangum have done a decent job of making contact in their young careers.
Tonight's projected lineup has a 21.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of 2024, which would've ranked as the 12th lowest last season — not amazing, but no longer a slam-dunk matchup. The Rays should also have enough lefties in there to give Houck problems.
Pick: Tanner Houck Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+112)
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Derek Carty's Braves vs Blue Jays Pick: Value on Holmes
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 1.55 walks allowed for Grant Holmes compared to the 1.94 walks allowed implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 53% of the time, resulting in a 33% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $33.35.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Grant Holmes Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+150)
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Allan Lem's Tigers vs Brewers Best Bet: Few Runs Expected
By Allan Lem
