Welcome to Opening Pitch, my column that you'll find daily throughout the 2023 MLB season.
My goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight my top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis, mainly as I react to opening and overnight lines while using my baseball betting model.
I will look to release a new version of Opening Pitch daily between midnight and 3 a.m. ET; after I enter my overnight bets in the Action Network App and update the MLB projections. Hopefully, you will use it as your morning betting guide to get ahead of the baseball markets.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Expert Picks for Wednesday, June 28
Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles
Luke Weaver vs. Kyle Gibson
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
The Reds (46-33) and Orioles (39-33-5) have been two of the better "Over" teams this season, and Wednesday's matchup will feature a pair of below-average starting pitchers.
Among a group of 115 starting pitchers who have tossed at least 50 innings this season, Luke Weaver (5.37 xERA) and Kyle Gibson (4.93 xERA) rank 80th and 106th, respectively, in Pitching+.
Pitching models prefer Weaver (94 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 99 Pitching+), who has an above-average cutter and curveball, per Stuff+.
Gibson (91 Stuff+, 98 Location+, 95 Pitching+) still has an above-average slider, which has long been his out-pitch, but his barrel rate (8.5%) is at the highest level of his career, and his strikeout rate is at its lowest point since 2017. The soon-to-be 36-year-old might be another victim of the pitch clock.
I projected Wednesday's total at 10.1; bet the Over up to 9 (-132) or 9.5 (-112).
Additionally, bet the Reds to +131 for the first five innings (F5) and +142 for the full game (projected +121 ad +131, respectively) in what hopefully amounts to a high-scoring, high-variance matchup.
New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics
Domingo German vs. J.P. Sears
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
After cashing our Oakland F5 tickets on Tuesday, we'll run back the same bet on Wednesday with former Yankee J.P. Sears (4.64 xERA) — traded in the Frankie Montas deal — facing Domingo German (5.06 xERA).
Without Aaron Judge in the lineup, the Yankees have been abysmal offensively, ranking dead last with a 66 wRC+ since June 4. When Judge missed time last April and early May, the Yankees ranked 28th with a 73 wRC+ over that IL stint.
Metrics and pitch models suggest that Sears (18.8% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+) is the more effective arm than German (14.4% K-BB%, 98 Pitching+). And I show an edge on the Athletics in both halves of this matchup.
JP Sears, 7th & 8th Ks pic.twitter.com/Z9djkkfrX0
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 22, 2023
Still, I'm much less inclined to place any bet involving Oakland's historically lousy bullpen (5.74 ERA, 5.34 xER, 6.9% K-BB%, 94 Pitching+) unless the projection differential becomes substantial.
Back the Athletics down to +107 in the first half (F5). And consider betting their full game moneyline at +135 or better (projected +123); however, I would probably need something closer to +145 to get behind this Oakland bullpen.
Zerillo's Bets for Wednesday, June 28
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- Cincinnati Reds F5 (+136, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +131)
- Cincinnati Reds (+150, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +142)
- Cincinnati Reds / Baltimore Orioles, Over 9 (-118, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -132 or 9.5, -112)
- Cleveland Guardians / Kansas City Royals, Over 8.5 (-120, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -130 or 9, -110)
- Minnesota Twins / Atlanta Braves, Under 10.5 (-115, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -10, -108)
- Oakland Athletics F5 (+112, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +107)
- Philadelphia Phillies / Chicago Cubs, Under 8.5 (-102, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -111)
- Tampa Bay Rays / Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9.5 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -110)
- WashingtonNationals / Seattle Mariners, Over 8 (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -112)
