Welcome to Opening Pitch, my column that you'll find daily throughout the 2023 MLB season.
My goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight my top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis, mainly as I react to opening and overnight lines while using my baseball betting model.
I will look to release a new version of Opening Pitch daily between midnight and 3 a.m. ET; after I enter my overnight bets in the Action Network App and update the MLB projections. Hopefully, you will use it as your morning betting guide to get ahead of the baseball markets.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Expert Picks for Sunday, April 16
San Francisco Giants vs. Detroit Tigers
Logan Webb vs. Matthew Boyd
First Pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
Sunday matchups typically see more unexpected lineup changes than your typical week. As a result, you'll tend to find that I bet more totals as opposed to sides overnight on Saturday.
The first two games on Sunday's slate feature weather-backed Unders after inputting my weather adjustments at each park. Both plays satisfy the Action Labs system for Wind Blowing In, which has generated an 8.8% ROI over more than 1,500 bets since 2005.
On Sunday, Comerica Park should see rain and wind blowing in from center field at 14-17 mph.
I projected the totals for Giants–Tigers at 3.72 for the first five innings (F5) and 7.19 for the full game. You can bet an F5 Under 4 to -105 or a full game under 8 to -120.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Reid Detmers vs. Garrett Whitlock
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
The wind in Boston (7 mph at first pitch) isn't as extreme in Detroit, but temperates will be nearly 20 degrees cooler, leaving poor hitting conditions for a pair of underrated and potentially emerging starting pitchers.
As I mentioned, this game triggered the above system for Wind Blowing In, but I also projected the totals at 4.64 (F5) and 8.63 (full game) and would bet an F5 Under 5 to -110, or a full game Under 9 to -104.
After their debacle in Tampa Bay, we also have bet and cashed tickets on the Red Sox in back-to-back games. And I project value on them again for Sunday.
I projected Boston around -120 in both halves and would split a bet on Boston's first half and full game moneylines to -115 (F5) and -110 (full game), respectively.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Washington Nationals
Shane Bieber vs. Patrick Corbin
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
A start involving two of my favorite pitchers to fade so far this season, with wind and weather likely benefitting run production; temperatures in the low 80s for a DC April, with winds blowing out to left center.
I projected the totals at 5.48 and 9.52 in either half and would bet an F5 Over (to 5, -118) and the full game Over (to 9, -110) without hesitation.
In a limited sample, the Guardians are showing signs that their troubles against left-handed pitching (84 wRC+ vs. lefties in 2022, 27th) are behind them. In 132 plate appearances against Southpaw pitching, Cleveland owns a 105 wRC+. And Patrick Corbin continues to exist:
While I am lower on Shane Bieber than the market, I still project actionable value on the Guardians' F5 moneyline (projected -253, bet to -240).
I considered adding a bet on Cleveland's F5 team total Over, but I already have that correlation covered with sufficient allocation on both their F5 moneyline and the F5 Over.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox
Grayson Rodriguez vs. Dylan Cease
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
I downgraded the run-scoring environment in Chicago on Sunday even with winds blowing out to left field at 17-20 mph. With rain and a temperature in the 40s throughout the game, the overall effect on the park factor should be a net negative.
I am also high on these starting pitchers and projected the totals at 3.85 (F5) and 7.52. You can bet an F5 Under 4 to -131 or an Under 8 to -108.
Additionally, I see value in the Orioles' moneyline (to +128), but that price target could change (or disappear altogether) if any key players sit on either side.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Mitch Keller vs. Miles Mikolas
First Pitch: 2:15 p.m. ET
We're playing with house money in this series on Sunday after cashing Pittsburgh as underdogs on Thursday and Saturday (and passing on Friday's loss).
I have talked about Mitch Keller plenty since the middle to end of last season, so I won't reiterate all of it. Still, Keller has been dominant in his past two outings (13 IP, 10 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 14 K) against good Astros and Red Sox offenses; he'll face another deep lineup on Sunday, but I think Keller continues to be overlooked.
Mitch Keller's 2Ks in the 3rd.
5Ks thru 3. pic.twitter.com/fxCfQVkg5i
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 11, 2023
I projected the Pirates as +140 underdogs. I bet Pittsburgh's moneyline down to +153.
New York Mets vs. Oakland Athletics
Jose Butto vs. JP Sears
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
The Mets brought Butto up for a spot start last August against the Phillies, and it did not go well (4 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 K). The 25-year-old has a decent slider and changeup but a below-average fastball and command.
I project JP Sears as the superior pitcher, but I don't see value on either side of the moneyline.
The opening total (9) is exceptionally high for Oakland Coliseum, especially with temperatures in the 50s at the first pitch and despite the wind blowing out to right center.
I projected the number closer to 8.3, and you can bet an Under to 8.5 (-105).
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Drew Smyly vs. Julio Urias
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Dodger Stadium should see favorable hitting conditions on Sunday afternoon — temperatures in the 70s with the wind blowing out to right center.
I projected the totals at 5.13 and 9.16 and would bet an Over in each half, up to 4.5 (-130) and 8.5 (-115).
Julio Urias is a weak contact wizard who continually throws gems whenever I need him to give up runs (whether I have an Over wager or a moneyline bet against him).
If Urias dominates, and the Dodgers win 4-0 through five and 8-0 for the game — and we lose both bets — you can directly blame me.
Colorado Rockies vs. Seattle Mariners
Noah Davis vs. Luis Castillo
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Unlike the Cardinals-Pirates series, where we are 2-0 betting on Pittsburgh, we have tried and failed twice to back the Rockies as underdogs at +160 and +220 and will take another shot on Colorado on Sunday, down to +233.
I bet Colorado at +240, bringing my average price across the three games to +207 (32.5% implied). Based on my projections for the games (+140, +199, +213), and average odds of +184 (35.2% implied), I have placed three bets on the Rockies across three games, in Seattle, with the expectation that I would win those bets 2.7% more often than the break-even price.
If the Rockies win on Sunday, we will generate a 13.3% ROI for the three-game series, even though we would have gone 1-2 on moneyline wagers. I don't care how often we win – I want to win more often than the betting odds suggest that we will.
Even though I have zero confidence in the Rockies – behind a pitcher I know little about besides numbers on paper – defeating the Mariners behind their ace, Luis Castillo – I'll continue to trust the process with bets such as these. The model isn't spitting out all of the >+200 underdogs; it is still relatively selective.
Zerillo's Bets for Sunday, April 16
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- Baltimore Orioles (+130, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +128)
- Baltimore Orioles, F5 Under 4.5 (-120, 0.5u) at BetRivers (bet to -131)
- Baltimore Orioles, Under 8.5 (-120, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to 8, -108)
- Boston Red Sox F5 (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
- Boston Red Sox (-105, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -110)
- Boston Red Sox / Los Angeles Angels, F5 Under 5.5 (-155, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -150 or 5, -110)
- Boston Red Sox / Los Angeles Angels, Under 9.5 (-110, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to 9, -104)
- Chicago Cubs / Los Angeles Dodgers, F5 Over 4.5 (-106, 0.5u) at BetRivers (bet to -130)
- Chicago Cubs / Los Angeles Dodgers, Over 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -115)
- Cleveland Guardians F5 (-180, 0.5u) at BetRivers (bet to -240)
- Cleveland Guardians/WashingtonNationals, F5 Over 4.5 (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to 5, -118)
- Cleveland Guardians/Washington Nationals, Over 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to 9, -110)
- Colorado Rockies (+240, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to +233)
- MinnesotaTwins (+145, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +136)
- New York Mets / Oakland Athletics, Under 9 (-115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 8.5, -105)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+155, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +153)
- San Francisco Giants vs. Detroit Tigers, Under 8.5 (-120, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to 8, -120)
- Toronto Blue Jays F5 (+115, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +106)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+120, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +106)
