Saturday MLB Expert Picks, Predictions, Odds on April 1

Welcome to Opening Pitch, my new column that you'll find daily throughout the 2023 MLB season.

My goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight my top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis, mainly as I react to opening and overnight lines while using my baseball betting model.

I will look to release a new version of Opening Pitch daily between midnight and 3 a.m. ET; after I enter my overnight bets in the Action Network App and update the MLB projections. Hopefully, you will use it as your morning betting guide to get ahead of the baseball markets.

You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).

You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.

Let's jump into my favorite overnight betting spots for Saturday's 15-game slate.

Expert Picks for Saturday, April 1

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs

Brandon Woodruff vs. Justin Steele
First Pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET

Justin Steele was a model favorite last season, which continues this year. We're taking a slight edge on the Cubs to +105 or better (projected -101) at home.

Steele flew under the radar with a 3.6 expected ERA or xERA last season — on the borderline of the No. 2/3 type starter tiers — while Brandon Woodruff (3.15 xERA) is somewhere between the No. 2s and the true aces.

Your average baseball fan might know Woodruff — a two-time All-Star — but they probably have never heard of Steele.

Given Milwaukee's identity in recent years, I also project these bullpens closer than you might expect, and I project the two offenses as relatively equal. Still, the Cubs have the edge both on defense and the base paths.

These organizations seem to be trending in opposite directions. The Cubs are on the back-end of a rebuild coming off an active offseason, while the Brewers are seemingly at the end of their window — and potentially heading into a rebuild of their own — with both Woodruff and Corbin Burnes pitching under expiring contracts.

However, I do like both starters, and both bullpens are rested after an off day. Moreover, with the wind blowing in, I projected this total at 6.4; and would bet Under 6.5 to +105 at a two percent edge compared to my number.

I would need -120 to play an F5 Under 3.5.

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals

Spencer Strider vs. Josiah Gray
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET

Among pitchers who tossed 100 innings last season, nobody was better than NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Spencer Strider (2.39 xERA).

He sustained an injury toward the end of the regular season — and was shaky in his first start back in the playoffs — but Strider was impressive this spring (16 IP, 14 H, 4 BB, 21 K) and seems poised to return to peak form as potentially the most effective starter in baseball on a per-inning basis.

He's arguably the best two-pitch starter I have ever seen, too, throwing a fastball or slider 95% of the time. The slider is effective against lefties and righties; Strider didn't carry a noticeable platoon split.

It should be said that Josiah Gray is a former top prospect who took a step forward last season (4.25 xERA) and is coming off of a solid spring of his own (16 1/3 IP, 13 H, 2 BB, 14 K).

Still, I show nearly a two-run gap in weighted ERA between the starting pitchers, and the Braves project better against righties than lefties offensively.

I projected the Braves' first-five innings (F5) moneyline at -304 (75.3% implied) and would bet Atlanta F5 up to -274 at a two percent edge or include that bet as a parlay piece up to -285.

San Francisco Giants vs. New York Yankees

Alex Cobb vs. Clarke Schmidt
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m ET

Alex Cobb was a model favorite last season; however, the Yankees are my most considerable projected edge for Saturday.

I have maintained that Cobb — who was harmed by his defense as much as any pitcher in baseball last season — will be entirely victimized by the lack of the shift this season.

I don't project a single Giants regular as an above-average defender. In fact, most of them are detrimental defenders, and most of the starting lineup features below-average baserunners, too.

Conversely, the Yankees are clearly in the elite tier of defensive teams (alongside the Guardians) who I expect to succeed despite shift limitations. And although everyone focuses on their power, the Yankees run the bases exceptionally well and can score runs in various ways.

However, the key to the bet is Clarke Schmidt, who was excellent in 29 appearances (three starts) last season — posting a 3.51 xERA in 57 2/3 innings.

Schmidt is starting in place of Luis Severino, but he stretched out this spring (five starts, 19 2/3 IP, 16 H, 4 BB, 25 K) and will look to turn over the Giants' lineup at least twice before giving way to an elite, rested bullpen.

I project a similar pitching advantage for the Yankees' bullpen over the Giants' bullpen as I do for Cobb against Schmidt, and that's enough to get me to -151 on the Yankees F5 line and -167 for the full game.

Given the bullpen dynamics, bet the Yankees on the full game line up to -155. I would reduce my bet size at any price above -140 (projected edge below four percent at that point).

You can play Yankees F5 straight to -139 or include it as a parlay piece to -145.

I was personally surprised by my optimistic projection for Schmidt. Perhaps he'll become a model favorite for 2023.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers

Zack Wheeler vs. Nathan Eovaldi
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET

Small projection edge on the home underdog, and you can play Texas to +115.

Check whether the roof is open or closed for this matchup. I'm high on both Zack Wheeler and Nathan Eovaldi for 2023; however, Globe Life Park flips from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park depending on whether the roof is open or closed.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics 

Patrick Sandoval vs. Shintaro Fujinami
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET

The model used to bet on Patrick Sandoval before it was cool. He had a semi-breakout performance in a prominent spot during the WBC (since the Angels never make the playoffs), and it seems like his stock went up.

It's challenging to know what to make of Shintaro Fujinami. Projections are everywhere. The most optimistic numbers (3.71 ERA from ZIPS) and the least optimistic from The BAT (5.03 ERA) present an extensive range of outcomes.

I'm using a number much more on the pessimistic side for Fujinami (4.85 Model Weighted ERA) until I can actively scout him.

The spring numbers give me A.J. Burnett vibes (18 2/3 IP, 7 H, 17 BB, 20 K), but the Stuff+ rating (94) was underwhelming.

I couldn't justify anything more than a poke on Oakland's moneyline (to +144) until I got more information on Fujinami.

New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins 

Tylor Megill vs. Edward Cabrera
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET

Three games between the Mets and the Marlins in Miami and essentially three coinflip lines. We would have found actionable prices on the Marlins last season, but perceptions have changed.

However, I project value on the Marlins for Saturday down to +106 F5 and +102 full game.

I am incredibly high on Edward Cabrera (4.05 xERA in 2022) and view him as a better, if not already comparable, pitcher to Tylor Megill, who had an impressive debut in 2021 (3.84 xERA) but took a step back last season (4.31).

Cabera offered much better stuff in the spring (114.1 to 91.6; 100 being average) and has a far superior pedigree as a pitching prospect. Command (and health) are his biggest roadblocks, but I expect a step forward in 2023.

You can also bet Under 8 to -105.

Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Spencer Turnbull vs. Zach Eflin
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET

I bet the Under in both halves of this matchup, projecting the totals at 3.46 at 6.86, respectively.

The Rays rarely hand out free-agent contracts, so it caught my eye when they handed Zach Eflin $40 million over three years, but he posted a 3.27 xERA last season in 20 appearances between the rotation and bullpen. I never doubt the Rays when they invest resources in anyone or anything.

Eflin solidly projects as a mid-three ERA-type starter. Spencer Turnbull is the wild card in the matchup, a year removed from Tommy John surgery. Turnbull posted above-average Stuff+ numbers in spring (12 IP, 10 H, 2 BB, 12 K), and when we last saw him, he was in the mid of a breakout (3.01 xERA in nine starts and 50 IP in 2021).

I'm expecting a sneaky pitcher's duel here, and you can bet the F5 Under down to 4 (-125) or the full game Under to 7.5 (-114).

Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners

Aaron Civale vs. Logan Gilbert
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET

I'm a bit perplexed as to why the Guardians would be more significant underdogs for the full game than they are for the first five innings on Saturday.

Seattle has a clear starting pitching advantage, although perhaps not as drastic as the market expects, considering my projection (three-tenths of a run).

Still, Cleveland's strength is clearly in its bullpen, where these two teams are evenly matched but better than 95% of the league.

If Cleveland is tied with any team as the game turns to the bullpens, it is extremely dangerous at plus money.

Seattle might have a slightly better offense (although I'm not even sure I agree with that statements one through nine), but the Guardians are the better defensive and baserunning team. That difference repeatedly reared its head on Friday as the Guardians gained unexpected base advancements.

I projected the Guardians around +107 in both halves both Saturday, and you can bet Cleveland in both markets down to +115.

Zerillo's Bets for April 1

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• Atlanta Braves F5 (-265, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Cleveland Guardians F5 (+116, 0.5u) at FanDuel
• Cleveland Guardians (+125, 0.5u) at WynnBet
• Chicago Cubs (+112, 0.5u) at BetRivers
• Detroit Tigers/ Tampa Bay Rays, F5 Under 4 (-150, 0.25u at FanDuel)
• Detroit Tigers/ Tampa Bay Rays, Under 7.5 (-110, 0.5u at Caesars)
• Miami Marlins F5 (+106, 0.5) at FanDuel
• Miami Marlins (+110, 0.5u) at WynnBet
• Minnesota Twins F5 (-158, 0.25u) at Fanduel (bet to -161)
• Milwaukee Brewers / Chicago Cubs, Under 6.5 (+105, 0.5u)
• New York Yankees (-135, Risk 1u) at DraftKings
• New York Mets / Miami Marlins, Under 8 (+100, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Parlay (+271, 0.25u): Braves F5 (-265), Twins F5 (-172), Yankees F5 (-142)
• Oakland Athletics +146, (0.25u) at WynnBet
• Texas Rangers +115, 0.5u) at WynnBet