Welcome to Opening Pitch, my column that you'll find daily throughout the 2023 MLB season.
My goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight my top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis, mainly as I react to opening and overnight lines while using my baseball betting model.
I will look to release a new version of Opening Pitch daily between midnight and 3 a.m. ET; after I enter my overnight bets in the Action Network App and update the MLB projections. Hopefully, you will use it as your morning betting guide to get ahead of the baseball markets.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Expert Picks for Wednesday, May 10
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Antonio Senzatela vs. Rich Hill
First Pitch: 12:35 p.m. ET
Antonio Senzatela might be my least favorite pitcher to bet on. Since he entered the league in 2017, Senzatela owns a 14.9% strikeout rate, which ranks 260th among a group of 266 qualified starting pitchers over the past six seasons. However, Senzatela showed one particularly encouraging sign in his first start of 2023 last week; increased velocity across his entire arsenal.
Conversely, Rich Hill is trending in the opposite direction, with a fastball sitting at a career-low of 87.2 mph; and Statcast thinks he has overperformed with a 4.54 ERA, compared to a 6.94 expected ERA (xERA).
We may not get too many more chances to bet against the 43-year-old Hill at plus money, and with the Pirates staying competitive through the first six weeks of the season, they may not give him many more chances to right the ship — and get back to his mid to low 4s xERA from the past two seasons.
I'm not sure he can make it work anymore while throwing the slowest fastball in the majors 40% of the time.
Bet Colorado to +120 for the first five innings (F5) and +128 for the full game.
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Peyton Battenfield
First Pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
Eduardo Rodriguez has been excellent through seven starts (2.71 xERA), and if he can maintain a career-best 4.9% walk rate (8% career), the southpaw can take another step forward in his age-30 season. Rodriguez is signed through 2025, but he can opt out after this season and re-enter free agency, and he seems contract-year motivated.
Rodriguez is generating both first-pitch strikes (68.1%) and called strikes (18.1%) at career-best clips. Rodriguez hasn't changed his pitch mix, and he's not generating more whiffs; he seems to have a gameplan — and he's executing.
Both teams will get stuck in their offensive lesser split for this matchup, but I strongly prefer Rodriguez to Peyton Battenfield (6.35 xERA; 11.1% walk rate in 24 1/3 MLB innings), and you can bet the Tigers F5 moneyline to -105.
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Edward Cabrera vs. Merrill Kelly
First Pitch: 3:40 p.m. ET
Cabrera has allowed at least two runs every start this season, thanks to some woeful command (17.6% walk rate). Still, he's been able to avoid significant damage thanks to a strikeout rate near 30%, alongside a 53.2% groundball rate, both of which serve to kill rallies and bail him out of jams.
I project Cabrera as a slightly better starting pitcher than Merrill Kelly, but I give a similar advantage to Arizona's bullpen over Miami's in the late innings.
Bet the Fish in both halves to +125 (F5) and +131 (full game) with a high-variance starter we are accustomed to regularly backing since his debut last season.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Kevin Gausman vs. Zack Wheeler
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
In my model, Kevin Gausman and Zack Wheeler project as high-end No. 2 starters; either carry a sub-3.25 Model Weighted ERA projection.
And even though these offenses are potent, I like the Under in Wednesday's matchup between the Blue Jays and Phillies. I projected the total at 7.98; I bet Under 8.5 to -110.
You can also play an F5 Under 4.5 to -121.
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Cristian Javier vs. Griffin Canning
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
Angel Stadium should see decent weather for the offenses on Wednesday; 70 degrees at first pitch, with ten mph gusts blowing out to left-center.
While there's a chance that a star or two — such as Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, or Yordan Alvarez — sits in a day game after a night game, I'm assuming that every key offensive player will be in the lineup for what could ultimately prove to be a crucial divisional matchup.
I projected the total at 10.11; bet Over 9 to -130, or 9.5 to -110.
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Justin Verlander vs. Hunter Greene
First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
With Max Scherzer potentially headed to the IL, the Mets need a big boost from the reigning AL Cy Young winner, Justin Verlander, whose velocity was back to 2022 levels following an injury scare and an IL stint of his own to start the year.
I bet the Reds closer to +150, but the number has moved a bit since; I wouldn't bet them beyond +148, at a two percent edge compared to my projected line (+136).
And while we have slight wind blowing in (4 mph from left field) on Thursday, warm temperatures (76 degrees at first pitch) should keep one of the best hitter's venues in professional baseball playing true, even with a pair of solid starters sharing the mound.
With the Reds' moneyline potentially moving out of range, take a chance on an Over 9 to -102 at Great American BallPark.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Jordan Montgomery vs. Justin Steele
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
Typically, books wait to post Wrigley Field totals until the day of the game; still, FanDuel typically puts out an overnight total, and I felt Wednesday's opened a bit high considering the anticipated weather.
Temperatures should drop to the low 60s by the middle innings of Wednesday's matchup, and with the wind blowing in from right field, this matchup triggered an Action Labs system for Wrigley Field Unders:
Blindly tailing every recommendation under, this system since 2005 would have netted you a 16.6% ROI.
I'm not a system bettor, however. I input my wind and weather adjustment on this game and set my total at 7.34. Bet Under 8 to -115, and we'll search for an F5 Under to add in the morning.
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Lance Lynn vs. Brad Keller
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
While Brad Keller overhauled his pitch mix this offseason, early returns (5.33 xERA, -1.9% K-BB%) are incredibly discouraging for a pitcher who finally appeared like he might turn the corner.
Keller has walked more batters than he's struck out in each of his past four outings — which is a huge red flag — but essentially, all of his pitches are new, and he's still getting used to blending and commanding them in high-level matchups.
Lance Lynn has allowed four runs or more in five of his seven starts this season, and he's been a bit unlucky (.360 BABIP, 64% strand rate), but xERA (5.12) says that he's mostly deserved to struggle.
I remain extremely low on the White Sox — particularly against a right-handed starter — and I projected the odds for this game around a pick'em in both halves.
Bet the Royals to +115 (F5) and +108 (full game), even though Keller mightily struggles with his command.
Zerillo's Bets for Wednesday, May 10
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App.
- Atlanta Braves F5 (-160, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -171)
- Boston Red Sox / Atlanta Braves, Under 10 (-105, 0.5u) at DraftKings
- Cincinnati Reds (+148, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +148)
- Cincinnati Reds / New York Mets, Over 9 (+105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -102)
- Colorado Rockies F5 (+125, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to +120)
- Colorado Rockies (+140, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +128)
- Detroit Tigers F5 (+105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -105)
- Detroit Tigers / Cleveland Guardians, F5 Over 3.5 (-115, 0.5u), bet to -130
- Kansas City Royals F5 (+118, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +115)
- Kansas City Royals (+120 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +108)
- Houston Astros / Los Angeles Angels, Over 9 (-120, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -130 or 9.5, -110)
- Miami Marlins F5 (+124, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +124)
- Miami Marlins (+138, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +131)
- St. Louis Cardinals / Chicago Cubs, Under 8 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -115)
- Tampa Bay Rays / Baltimore Orioles, Under 9.5 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -110)
- Toronto Blue Jays / Philadelphia Phillies, F5 Under 4.5 (-120, 0.5u), bet to -121
- Toronto Blue Jays / Philadelphia Phillies, Under 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -110)
