After a raucous Opening Day, the MLB slate on Friday is much more mundane, with just five games this evening.
Things get started with Mets vs. Marlins at 6:40 p.m. ET and wrap up with a pair of West Coast games between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers and Guardians and Mariners.
Of Friday's five games, our analysts are specifically targeting two: White Sox vs. Astros and Rockies vs. Padres. We have five bets in total on those two games, including totals, fire five moneylines and props.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Friday, March 31st.
Friday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
White Sox vs. Astros
Friday, March 31 8:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
White Sox F5 ML +130  |
Lance Lynn did regress in 2022, but his numbers were still pretty good. He had a 3.62 xERA, 3.44 xFIP, his BB/9 rate was the lowest of his career at 1.41, and he did all that by mainly throwing a fastball, cutter, and sinker.
He did that because he improved his control drastically, as his Location+ was 104 in 2022, which was top 30 in MLB.
The Astros were one of the best fastball hitting teams in baseball last season, as they had better than a +60 run value against them, but against right-handed sinkers and cutters, they actually were well below average with a combined -15.8 run value, .260 xBA, and .324 xwOBA. Plus, this is an Astros lineup that is without Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley to begin the season.
Cristian Javier is a darkhorse Cy Young candidate and he had one of the lowest xERAs in baseball last season at 2.43. However, basically every projection system has him regressing to more of a 3.6 ERA type of pitcher.
Last season, Javier had an 83.6% LOB%, which was the best in MLB outside of only Julio Urias. That is incredibly impressive, but there is also a lot of variance involved with that as well, so it would be really difficult for him to pull off for yet another season.
So I think this price is over-inflating Javier a bit, especially for the first five innings. I have Lynn and the White Sox projected at +111 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at +130.
Pick: White Sox F5 ML +130
White Sox vs. Astros
Friday, March 31 8:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
F5 Under 4 (-125)  |
By Jim Turvey
Early in the season, I always look to target pitchers I am higher or lower on than the market and play around in their first five innings market.
Friday has a pairing of two pitchers I am higher on than the market facing off in Houston.
Lance Lynn toes the rubber in Chicago and is the epitome of an unsexy pitcher. On the surface, he slid notably last year. He went from a 2.59 ERA and third-place finish in the Cy Young to a 3.99 ERA that only snuck below 4.00 in the final start of the season.
However, that number is inflated significantly by a couple of bad starts after coming off the IL to start the season. After the All-Star Break, he posted a 2.52 ERA that was a bit lucky (3.42), but much closer to the level from the season before. Lynn is not a true talent 2.00s ERA, but he's also better than the 4.00 ERA he appears as.
On the other side of the bump is one of the highest ceiling young pitchers in the sport. Javier posted a 2.54 ERA in nearly 150 innings last season as a 25-year-old. The underlying numbers love Javier (8th among starters in K-BB% last season), and he'll be a common target to bet until the reputation catches up to the underlying skill.
I'd play this to under 4 -125 or under 3.5 plus money.
Pick: F5 Under 4 (-125)
White Sox vs. Astros
Friday, March 31 8:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Cristian Javier Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115)  |
By Nick Shlain
Framber Valdez started for the Astros on Opening Day, but make no mistake, Cristian Javier is the ace of this pitching staff.
One of my favorite bets for Friday’s slate of games is Javier to go over 6.5 strikeouts at +115 on BetMGM. Javier was a dominant strikeout pitcher last year and after pitching in the World Baseball Classic, he should be ready to go from the first start of the year.
In 2022, Javier had a 39% strikeout percentage against right-handed hitters and 28% strikeout percentage against left-handed hitters. The White Sox lineup struck out nine times on Opening Day and is a good matchup for Javier to rack up the strikeouts Friday night.
Javier can dominate the right-handed hitters from Chicago, but the left-handed hitters shouldn’t be much of a test either. Yoan Moncada had a 27% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching last year and Yasmani Grandal had a 22% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching last year. Oscar Colas will also be playing his second game ever in the major leagues.
Andrew Benintendi is the only left-handed hitter in this lineup with a strikeout percentage below 20% against right-handed pitching last year and he struck out once on Opening Day.
This is a pretty good matchup for Javier pitching at home and at plus money the odds are too good to pass up for me here. If Opening Day was any indication, pitchers will have an easier time putting up big strikeout games with the new pitch clock rules, as three pitchers struck out at least 10 batters on Thursday.
Pick: Cristian Javier Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Rockies vs. Padres
Friday, March 31 9:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
F5 Over 5.5 (+140) |
For entertainment purposes, I love a good conspiracy theory. Whether it is the Illuminati, or that the Reds are ACTUALLY rebuilding (yeah right), there is something about speculating on the collusion of higher-ups that is provides a great deal of entertainment.
So when I saw the rumors circulating that the balls are juiced this year, I couldn't have been more excited. It is hard to discredit them, considering that the 127 runs scored on Opening Day averaged to about 8.5 runs per game. Whether you think the balls are juiced, or the rule changes have promoted an increase in scoring, why not consider using it to turn a profit?
Even if you don't want to buy into the juiced-ball hype, there are plenty of reasons to bet on this first five over. The Padres' have made life rough for Kyle Freeland, specifically Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth and Austin Nola. Machado has has tallied 12 hits in 38 plate appearances against Freeland, and both Cronenworth and Nola have hit .333 off of Freeland with at least 10 plate appearances.
If you think the Padres have rocked Freeland, just wait until you see how poor the Rockies have made Nick Martinez's life on the mound. The Rockies boast five players that have a batting average of .300 when facing Martinez, and those five players have tallied four home runs in 65 plate appearances. C.J Cron is coming off of a great Opening Day, and after seeing the success he has had against Martinez, I expect him to keep the momentum going.
Whether you want to believed the powers that be have juiced the ball, or you like diving into the stats. Their is plenty of evidence to take these two teams to score quickly.
Pick: F5 Over 5.5 (+140)
Rockies vs. Padres
Friday, March 31 9:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Under 8 (-120)  |
By D.J. James
Nick Martinez boasted some nice 2022 peripherals, ranking in the 89th percentile in Average Exit Velocity with a Chase Rate in the 82nd percentile. The Rockies held a 30.5% chase rate, so this holds water, and the matchup is definitely not favorable to them.
Freeland had below-average peripherals, but much of that had to do with how much he hates pitching in the Mile High City. Away from Denver, he held a 3.08 ERA, compared to 6.00 at home.
Much of the roster is the same for the Padres, except the addition of Xander Bogaerts. They were definitely the better of these two against righties from August 1, 2022 and beyond with a 105 wRC+. Bogaerts, however is much better against lefties. He held a 1.038 OPS off of left-handers and only a .774 OPS against righties.
On the other side of the diamond, however, the Rockies did not get much better. Ezequiel Tovar and Jurickson Profar are added to the depth chart, but Randal Grichuk is out. These additions do not move the needle all too much.
The Rockies held a 69 wRC+ off of righties in that August 1, 2022 to the end of the season timeframe. They only walked 6.9% of the time, too. Profar has a good eye, but Tovar can be a free-swinger.
One issue may be the bullpens in this game with a litany of injuries, but with Martinez on the bump facing Freeland on the road, these two should go under the total.
Pick: Under 8 (-120)
