A new week is upon us in Major League Baseball and it's a lighter slate, with just 11 games on tap, all of which take place under the lights.
Our analysts have left no stone unturned in their search for value, and have found some on three of the 11 games: Rockies vs. Pirates, Dodgers vs. Brewers and Marlins vs. Diamondbacks.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Monday, May 8th.
Monday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rockies vs. Pirates
Monday, May 8 6:35 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Pirates -170  |
By Jim Turvey
The Pirates are on a seven-game skid right now, but Monday is a great chance to snap that streak. They host the Rockies, and the pitching matchup is a favorable one for the Pirates.
Although Mitch Keller's surface stats look somewhat similar to last season (3.32 ERA this season compared to 3.91 last season), under the hood are all kinds of improvements. Most notably, Keller's K/9 rate has leaped from 7.81 to 10.62, a massive jump that looks very legitimate thanks to an improved swinging strike rate and rate of hitters swinging at pitches outside the zone.
His Pitching+ number has jumped notably as well, going from right at 100 last season to 105 this season, which puts him 13th among the 32 pitchers with at least 40 innings this season. His slider is as nasty as ever, and he has introduced a cutter to lessen his fastball usage.
The Rockies own just an 85 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season and struggle greatly against sliders, Keller's best pitch. I will also be looking at Keller's strikeout prop on Monday.
Facing off with Keller is Kyle Freeland, who has been better this season but still possesses a 5.00 FIP and 4.70 xFIP. The Pirates have also been excellent against lefties all season, with a 115 wRC+ against southpaws.
Add in the Pirates' top-10 bullpen against the Rockies' bottom-10 'pen, and I would bet this all the way to -184.
Pick: Pirates -170
Dodgers vs. Brewers
Monday, May 8 7:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Brewers F5 -110  |
I'm not really sure Freddy Peralta should be a pick’em against Tony Gonsolin.
Gonsolin was a stud on paper last season: 2.14 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and opponents only hit .173 against him. However, his xERA was a full run higher at 3.12 and he drastically overperformed on all of his off-speed pitches if you compare the actual wOBA allowed compared to the xwOBA allowed.
His Stuff+ and Pitching+ were both 103 last season, which is above average. It’s elite, though, which means he was due to regress and that is what you are seeing this season. It’s only been two starts, but he’s struggled with his command and his Stuff+ is down to 96.
Peralta so far this season has been nasty with a Stuff+ of 108 and Pitching+ of 104, which is only a slight improvement from last season. Last season, he was a 2.7 xERA pitcher who dominated with his fastball and slider, with both pitches allowing under a .290 xwOBA.
The velocity, Stuff+, and spin rates are up significantly on those two pitches, which are pretty much all he throws, so he’s only going to get better as the season goes along and really gives the Brewers the advantage in the starting pitching matchup.
The Brewers have also been the best defensive team in baseball so far this season with +26 defensive runs saved, while the Dodgers have been middle of the road.
Plus, the Dodgers played an extra innings game on Sunday night and now have to travel halfway across the country for this game.
I have the Brewers projected at -135 for the first five innings so I like the value on them at -110.
Pick: Brewers F5 -110
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks
Monday, May 8 9:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Zac Gallen Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102) |
By Nick Shlain
Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen has been one of the top strikeout pitchers in all of baseball this season. Gallen’s 57 strikeouts place him fifth in all of baseball entering play Monday and one of the pitchers ahead of him, the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole, has made eight starts compared to Gallen’s seven starts.
Gallen has a 34% strikeout percentage this season and gets a good matchup for strikeouts with the Miami Marlins on tap. Miami’s projected lineup has a combined 23% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this year.
That might not seem extreme, but it’s significant considering this lineup also includes Luis Arraez, who has just a 2% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this year.
Despite that, five hitters in Miami’s projected lineup have at least a 25% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this year.
It’ll be tough for Gallen to strike out Arraez, no doubt, but he should be able to get over 6.5 strikeouts against the rest of this lineup.
Pick: Zac Gallen Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)
