Baseball bettors and fans are treated to a full slate today as Wednesday, July 26, features 15 games. As exciting as that is, the news gets even better.
The first game of the day starts just after noon, and there's a perfect mix of night and afternoon games, meaning there will be baseball on all day.
So, how should we bet all these games? Well, our MLB betting experts have looked over the odds and come up with five MLB best bets for Wednesday, including Cubs vs. White Sox and Rangers vs. Astros.
With so many games on the schedule, there's no more time to waste. Let's dive into our best MLB bets today.
Wednesday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from Wednesday's slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rockies vs. Nationals
Wednesday, July 26 12:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Nationals Over 4 Runs (-125)  |
By D.J. James
The Nationals can somewhat hit lefties and have actually been above average in the past week. They will throw Jake Irvin against Peter Lambert of the Rockies. Lambert is much more of an opener than an actual starter, which could further hinder an already weak Colorado bullpen.
With that being the case, the Nationals have enough at the top of the batting order to exploit the Rockies’ weak pitching and should go over their team total,
Lambert hasn’t thrown more than a few innings in each outing, but — even in a limited sample — he hasn’t impressed. The right-hander ranks in the second percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the fourth percentile in Hard-Hit Rate. His xSLG is .489, which ranks in the ninth percentile. He did log a nice five-inning outing against the struggling Miami Marlins, but otherwise hasn’t thrown more than 3 1/3 innings in any one outing.
In relief, the Rockies have just three active arms with an xFIP under 4.00: Justin Lawrence, Brent Suter and Matt Koch. That could hurt them in this game, especially if Lambert allows hard contact, as he usually does. This month, Colorado’s bullpen is carrying a 4.45 xFIP.
The Nats have a few young bats in Stone Garrett, CJ Abrams and Alex Call with xwOBA’s over .320. Dominic Smith is also above the .310 mark. Additionally, the Nationals have a 107 wRC+ over the past week off of righties.
Backing the Nationals to go over their team total is the right call. Lambert shouldn’t pitch too deep into this game and Colorado’s bullpen isn’t reliable. Take the Nationals team total to 5 (-110).
Pick: Nationals Over 4 Runs |
Reds vs. Brewers
Wednesday, July 26 2:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Reds Moneyline (+120) |
By D.J. James
Ben Lively hasn't been the Cincinnati Reds' best pitcher, but given the injuries in the rotation, his help has been paramount. His xERA is 4.53 and his ERA is 3.88, so he is getting some good fortune. That said, he ranks in the 56th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 69th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate, both of which are usually indicative of strong results. His strikeout rate is also about average and his walk rate is just 6.7%.
Lively and the Reds have a huge matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers will start Freddy Peralta, who has a 4.72 ERA against a 4.08 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is in the 71st percentile and his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 46th percentile.
The Reds have a July wRC+ of 97 with a .756 OPS, while the Brewers have a 91 wRC+ and a .698 OPS.
Milwaukee clearly has the better bullpen, but the Reds should have enough on the back of Lively’s start.
Take the Reds as underdogs and bet them to -120.
Pick: Reds Moneyline |
Orioles vs. Phillies
Wednesday, July 26 6:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV  |
Orioles F5 +110  |
Kyle Bradish has such an interesting profile as a starter. He was a highly touted prospect coming up and has posted a 3.05 ERA, but his expected ERA is up at 4.20.
Then when you dig into his Statcast profile, he doesn't look like a sub-3.5 ERA type of pitcher.
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Image via Baseball Savant
However, when you dig into Bradish's Stuff+ numbers, he's been a top-five pitcher in baseball over the past 30 days. He also has allowed only three earned runs in his last four starts.
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Image via FanGraphs
Ranger Suarez will be on the mound for the Phillies, and he's someone who has been an average to below-average starting pitcher. Suarez owns a 4.49 xERA and has a Stuff+ rating of just 84 with none of his pitches having a rating over 100.
Here's the problem Suarez is running into: When he was putting up really good numbers in 2021 and 2022, his groundball rate was above 55%. In 2021, it was getting close to 60%. This season, he's dropped down closer to a 50% groundball rate, which is why you see his xERA rising.
He throws a sinker, fastball, curveball and changeup as his main four-pitch combination, with everything designed to be down in the zone to induce those groundballs because he doesn't have a lot of velocity.
You couple that with the fact that he's been a little wild with a BB/9 rate of 3.33, and you get a below-average MLB starting pitcher.
The Orioles hit lefties better than they do right-handers, ranking top 10 in wOBA. They'll be able to platoon eight right-handed bats against Suarez.
I have the Orioles and Bradish projected at -113 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at +110.
Pick: Orioles F5 +110 |
Cubs vs. White Sox
Wednesday, July 26 8:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Cubs ML -120  |
By D.J. James
The White Sox are one of the worst teams in baseball, while the crosstown rival Cubs are overachieving in a rebuilding year.
The Sox throw Lance Lynn against Marcus Stroman on Wednesday night, and even though Lynn has some phenomenal strikeout numbers, he has been getting hit hard lately.
Meanwhile, Stroman is a National League Cy Young candidate who could yield a massive return at the deadline for the Northsiders.
Lynn has a 6.18 ERA with an 11.1% barrel rate. His xERA sits at 4.81, but even though this shows some expected positive regression, it's still an awful number. He also owns a below-average average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, which the Cubs can exploit.
Stroman did not have a good outing last time on the hill, giving up four earned in 3.2 innings against the Cardinals. He's an odd pitcher because he has defied a lot of expected stats. His ERA comes in at 3.09 against a 3.86 xERA, but both of these numbers are ace-caliber.
The big edge in this game is the Cubs having a 108 wRC+ with a 9.6% walk rate and .753 OPS off of righties this month.
The White Sox carry a 77 wRC+ with a 5.5% walk rate and .649 OPS. The Cubs should hit Lynn hard, and the White Sox may struggle against a motivated Stroman.
The Cubs have been worse in relief in July, but the Sox haven't been much better. There should not be much of a discrepancy in this one.
Take the Cubs at -120 with the better lineup and starter on the hill.
Pick: Cubs ML -120 (Play to -150) |
Rangers vs. Astros
 Wednesday, July 26 8:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Rangers ML +158 |
I don’t think the Rangers should ever be higher than +150 against the Astros.
At a minimum, a one-game difference between these two AL West-leading teams means they should be power rated about even. I still think Texas is the superior team — and it is, by run differential (+140 to +57).
Houston is 1-7 in extras this year, but Texas is 7-14 in one-run games. So, there’s no regression to factor in for either team.
The line favors Houston because of lefty ace Framber Valdez, as he’s much better than the Rangers’ lefty starter, Andrew Heaney.
But is Valdez that much better? Both have an expected ERA over 4.00. Framber has allowed 15 earned over his past four outings (23.1 IP, 5.79 ERA), most recently allowing four to the lowly Athletics.
Heaney recently allowed four earned to the Dodgers and seven to the Nationals, but he also put together shutout performances against the Guardians and these Astros.
I think Heaney can hang with Valdez.
If he can, the Rangers have the lineup advantage (they have a whopping 138 wRC+ against southpaws this year), defensive advantage (they're a top-five defense by Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average) and bullpen advantage.
Yes, you read that correctly. Texas has the bullpen advantage. The Rangers have a better reliever xFIP (4.71) than Houston (4.88) over the past two weeks, and the Astros' pen has been taxed recently.
Astros ‘pen a tad taxed entering series with Texas pic.twitter.com/AudX7351XM
— Tanner McGrath (@tannerstruth) July 26, 2023
Getting the Rangers higher than +150 feels like a gift.
Pick: Rangers ML +158 |
