There are 15 games on the MLB slate for Sunday, July 16, but a pair of our betting experts have zeroed in on one specific matchup.
Both Anthony Dabbundo and William Boor are betting the Dodgers vs. Mets game and backing the underdog on the moneyline. Continue reading for their analysis as the best MLB bets for Sunday, July 16 are below.
Sunday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Dodgers vs. Mets
Sunday, July 16 1:40 p.m. ET MLB Network |
Dodgers Moneyline (+115)  |
By William Boor
Betting against Max Scherzer doesn't feel great, but getting the Dodgers at plus money does.
Scherzer's advanced metrics show he's pitched better than his surface-level stats (3.62 xERA compared to a 4.31 ERA), but he still hasn't been his typical dominant self this season. Perhaps that's just the opening we need to fade the ace and cash a ticket on the Dodgers.
Bobby Miller got off to a fast start this season, but struggled in June. However, he's still pitched better than his 4.50 ERA with a 3.89 xERA. Ideally, the All-Star break was just what Miller needed to reset and get back into form. If he's able to do that, I love the value on the Dodgers in this spot.
The Mets certainly have the starting pitching advantage, but it may not be as big as it appears given Scherzer's struggles this season. That advantage is also negated by the fact that Los Angeles' offense is much better than New York's. The Dodgers are averaging roughly a run per game more than the Mets this season and have been won six in a row.
The Dodgers aren't underdogs often, so let's take advantage of the opportunity. I'd play this down to -110.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline | Play to -110 |
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Dodgers vs. Mets
Sunday, July 16 1:40 p.m. ET MLB Network |
Dodgers Moneyline (+100 or Better)  |
The Dodgers took the first two games of the series and will go for the sweep in Queens on Sunday as rookie Bobby Miller pitches against veteran Max Scherzer. At this point in their respective careers, it's fair to ask who the better starter is. Scherzer's strikeout rate is down a few ticks to 27.6%, the first time he's dipped below 30% in the Statcast era.
He probably won't continue to allow a 10% barrel rate, and it's fair to expect him to trend toward his career average (6.9%), but the modest decline in his stuff does make him more vulnerable to the long ball.
The consensus rest of season projected ERA for Scherzer is a 3.60. However, given that his FIP, xFIP and xERA are all higher, I think those projections may be too optimistic. Meanwhile, Bobby Miller has the second-best Stuff+ grade in the past 30 days amongst starting pitchers.
Miller could beat his consensus 4.10 ERA projection by striking out more than the projections expect. Given his Stuff+ grade, I'd project him to strike out a lot more than the 22.8% of batters he's fanned thus far. His 10.6% swinging-strike rate is above league average, so more strikeouts could be coming. Miller has more upside than Scherzer in this start and the Dodgers have the superior lineup strength against a righty.
I'd bet the Dodgers at anything plus money to win Sunday's matchup.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline | +100 or Better |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
