Tuesday was another frustrating day (0-2), as I lost a YRFI despite runners making it to third base.
Let's see if I can turn it around today, with three picks on Wednesday.
Here's my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Wednesday.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks and Predictions — June 18, 2025
Rockies vs. Nationals NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: German Marquez vs. Mitchell Parker
We cashed the YRFI in this series on Monday, with the Rockies surprisingly being the team to get us there.
With that in mind — plus the aggressive pricing on the Nationals team YRFI — I'm going back to the well in a game with a 9.0/9.5-run total depending on the book.
The Nationals are certainly the more likely team to cash this one, as they have a very solid top of the lineup and are facing a pitcher with a 5.65 ERA and 4.86 xFIP his first time through the order.
However, Mitchell Parker's early-game stats — 7.01 ERA and 5.37 xFIP — are even worse, so even the dreadful Rockies lineup has a shot at getting there.
Cardinals vs. White Sox NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Sonny Gray vs. Sean Burke
I'm actually showing some value on the game YRFI here (best line of +108 at FanDuel), but I'd rather take the bigger price on the better team to be the ones that cash it.
The White Sox are taking on Sonny Gray, who at age 35 is still a borderline ace. They're also the 29th-ranked team against right-handed pitching in baseball, so they don't provide much equity for us.
On the other side, the Cardinals' lineup starts with five straight above-average hitters by wRC+, with two players better than 130 in that metric.
Plus, Sean Burke has an xFIP mark of over 5.00, both overall and his first time through the order.
Add in some solid hitting weather that boosts scoring by 20%, according to Weather Edge, and I really like this one at +200 or better.
Astros vs. Athletics NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Framber Valdez vs. Luis Severino
This is another game with a very fair price, considering the 9.5-run total.
It's enough to take a chance on, despite two solid pitchers. We also have one of the best hitters parks in baseball and temperatures in the mid-90s, with the wind blowing out to center field.
Plus, there are some solid bats at the top of both teams' lineups. Four of the six hitters guaranteed to come up in the first inning are among the top 22 hitters in all of baseball by wRC+.
The two of those on the Athletics side (Brent Rooker and Jacob Wilson) also do their best work against left-handed pitching.
