We had another big day yesterday, going 4-1, including hitting both single-team MLB YRFIs.
Let's keep that momentum rolling into Wednesday, with three more MLB picks.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions for Wednesday, April 23
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — Wednesday, April 23
Padres vs. Tigers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Hart vs. Reese Olson
I don't have a large enough sample size on the Padres' Kyle Hart to make a full projection on him, but what we've seen so far is encouraging for the YRFI.
In four starts, the YRFI has hit three times, and he's allowed 10 runs in 7 2/3 innings his first time through the order.
Much of the projection hinges on where Detroit puts Spencer Torkelson in the lineup, as he's by far their best hitter against lefties. If you're nervous about it, it would make sense to wait to see if he's in the top three before making this bet.
However, I'm comfortable taking it now since the Padres project very well.
Leadoff hitter Fernando Tatis is a top-five hitter in the MLB, and San Diego's first three hitters all have a wRC+ of 140 or higher.
Tigers starter Reese Olson is fine, but this matchup favors the Padres' bats.
Yankees vs. Guardians NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Carlos Rodon vs. Luis L. Ortiz
The Guardians' first three hitters feature two switch hitters with better numbers against lefties in Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana.
They're taking on southpaw Carlos Rodon, who has an xFIP over 4.00 his first time through the order this season and tends to struggle early before settling in.
The Yankees have Aaron Judge, which is almost enough information on its own. They also have a solid matchup against Ortiz, who's been both bad overall (5.48 ERA) and worse early (7.04 first time through the order ERA) since joining the Guardians.
The Yankees' team-specific YRFI is also interesting here, but I'm showing a bigger edge for the typical YRFI. It's -102 at BetMGM but around -105 everywhere else, all of which project strongly.
Brewers vs. Giants NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Freddy Peralta vs. Logan Webb
We're going back to the well after cashing the NRFI in this series yesterday.
Unfortunately, we're paying a steeper price this time around, with the best line -150 at both FanDuel and Caesars.
I'm still showing an edge there, though, with the total dropping as low as 6.5 at some books (or a heavily juiced line of 7 or higher at others).
Both pitchers have strong first-time-through-the-order splits. Oracle Park is fairly pitcher-friendly, and, per Weather Edge, the weather reduces scoring by about 9%.
That's enough to overcome the heavy juice.
