MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks, Predictions for Wednesday, August 21

MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks, Predictions for Wednesday, August 21 article feature image
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Both picks cashed on Tuesday for a solid winning day.

Let's keep it going on Wednesday.

I have two more MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and predictions for Wednesday, August 21.

MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks for Wednesday

Billy Ward's Phillies vs. BravesNRFI/YRFI Bet

Phillies Logo
Wednesday, August 21
7:20 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Braves Logo
YRFI +100 (Play to -110)
FanDuel Logo

Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola vs. Max Fried

This one doesn't seem like a great YRFI candidate at first glance, given that it features two fairly strong starting pitchers.

However, there's a lot to like under the surface.

Both Fried and Nola have higher first-time-through-the-order ERAs than overall, so in a game with an eight-run total, a good bit of that scoring will likely come in the early frames.

More importantly, the Phillies are the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching, with that primarily driven by their top-of-lineup hitters. Their first three bats all have wOBAs of at least .400 against southpaws this season.

The Braves are less of a threat here, but with the full-game YRFI at even money on FanDuel (as well as DraftKings and ESPNBet), we don't need to get cute picking a moneyline or single-team YRFI.

Billy Ward's Rays vs. A's NRFI/YRFI Bet

Rays Logo
Wednesday, August 21
9:40 p.m. ET
Apple TV+
Athletics Logo
YRFI +115 (Play to +100)
Caesars Logo

Starting Pitchers: Ryan Pepiot vs. Mitch Spence

We have another slightly uncomfortable YRFI today.

This Rays-A's game has a 7.5-run total between two below-average offenses.

However, the price is right, with +115 available at Caesars and plus-money throughout the industry. That makes this a play in a spot I have projected for just over a 50% chance for a YRFI.

Much of that comes down to the pitchers, specifically Mitch Spence. His ERA and xFIP were over 4.00 his first time through the order as a starter, and his numbers as a reliever made his overall stats appear a bit better than they should be.

Pepiot's 3.90 xFIP his first time through the order isn't particularly threatening either, giving this one a reasonable shot of cashing at a very attractive price.

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About the Author
Billy Ward has been passionate about fantasy sports since the 1990s and pursued a career as an MMA fighter, turning pro at 21 before returning to college to finish his degree. He has notable achievements in fantasy sports and DFS, including qualifying for the DraftKings UFC DFS world championship and five-figure wins in NFL DFS and best ball. Now a member of the Action Network’s predictive analytics team, Billy specializes in NFL, MLB, and combat sports, managing DFS player projection models and contributing to podcasts and live betting shows.

Follow Billy Ward @Psychoward586 on Twitter/X.

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