MLB NRFI Picks & Predictions for Saturday, August 31

MLB NRFI Picks & Predictions for Saturday, August 31 article feature image

My return to MLB NRFI action didn't go well on Friday as we lost both bets.

Let's turn it around over the weekend. I have two MLB NRFI picks and predictions for Red Sox vs Tigers and Royals vs Astros on Saturday, August 31.

MLB NRFI Picks & Predictions for Saturday, August 31

Billy Ward's Red Sox vs. TigersNRFI Prediction

Red Sox Logo
Saturday, August 31
6:10 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Tigers Logo
NRFI -120 (Play to -130)
FanDuel Logo

Starting Pitchers: Nick Pivetta vs. Tarik Skubal

Boston is on the wrong side of their platoon splits against the left-handed Tarik Skubal, losing 10 points in wRC+ as a team. Of course, Skubal isn't just a garden-variety lefty. He's got a 2.58 overall ERA that drops to 1.49 his first time through the order.

Pivetta's numbers aren't quite as good, but he has a 3.80 ERA and 3.20 xFIP his first time through the order. All of his underlying metrics are lower than his ERA, probably due to playing in Boston — the second-best hitters park in all of baseball.

The move to Comerica (22nd in Park Factor) should help for Pivetta, while the Tigers offense is still a bit below average. That's enough to play this one at relatively low juice.

MLB Best Bets & Saturday Picks, Predictions Image

Billy Ward's Royals vs. Astros NRFI Prediction

Royals Logo
Saturday, August 31
7:10 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Astros Logo
NRFI -108 (Play to -125)
FanDuel Logo

Starting Pitchers: Cole Ragans vs. Yusei Kikuchi

This game features two left-handed pitchers, and tow teams with slightly worse wRC+ numbers against lefties. On top of that, both starters have excellent first time through the order numbers.

Cole Ragans comes into the contest with a 2.34 ERA early in games, while Kikuchi is at 3.07 (with a better xFIP). The Houston lineup is a bit more threatening than the Royals, but they have the tougher task against Ragans.

This is a bit of an off-line at FanDuel at -108, with most other books in the -125 to -130 range. Jump on that while it's still up, as I expect these lines will converge later in the day.

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About the Author
Billy Ward has been passionate about fantasy sports since the 1990s and pursued a career as an MMA fighter, turning pro at 21 before returning to college to finish his degree. He has notable achievements in fantasy sports and DFS, including qualifying for the DraftKings UFC DFS world championship and five-figure wins in NFL DFS and best ball. Now a member of the Action Network’s predictive analytics team, Billy specializes in NFL, MLB, and combat sports, managing DFS player projection models and contributing to podcasts and live betting shows.

Follow Billy Ward @Psychoward586 on Twitter/X.

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