We didn't have any MLB NRFI & YRFI picks on Thursday because of the small slate, but fortunately, we have every team in action on Friday, May 17. We'll look to finish the week strong after going 8-1 since Monday.
Check out my three MLB NRFI & YRFI picks and model predictions below.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Friday Model Predictions
Starting Pitchers: Matt Waldron vs. Max Fried
Due to the strength of their lineup, we're frequently interested in Braves YRFIs. Nothing about today's matchup changes that, as they're taking on Matt Waldron. Waldron has a 5.49 overall ERA and 7.88 ERA his first time through the order.
The Padres also provide some sneaky run scoring equity here. Max Fried has been excellent overall this year, with a 3.57 ERA. However, the production he does allow has come early in games, with a 6.06 ERA and 4.78 xFIP his first time through the order.
That's enough to tilt us to the full game YRFI here, rather than try to target the Braves' team-specific line.
Starting Pitchers: Freddy Peralta vs. Hunter Brown
My model likes this bet more than I do, but I've learned to trust the numbers over my own judgement in situations like this.
Freddy Peralta has been solid this year, with a 3.63 overall ERA that drops to 2.50 his first time through the order. Hunter Brown has not, with his ERA sitting at an ugly 7.79.
However, he's been considerably better than that, with his xERA, xFIP and SIERA all right around four. Additionally, his first time through the order xFIP is a bit lower than his overall, as he tends to fall apart later into his starts.
With a moderate 8.5-run total, that's enough to shift the value to the no runs side even with some solid hitters at the top of both lineups.
Starting Pitchers: Frankie Montas vs. James Paxton
Anytime we can get guaranteed at bats from the two best hitters in baseball — Mookie Betts and Shoehei Ohtani — we're going to be interested in the YRFI. Especially with the Dodgers implied for more than five runs, and taking on an opposing pitcher with a 5.78 xFIP his first time through the order.
Books aren't offering a great price on the Dodgers' team-specific line, though. In addition, The Reds are projecting solidly against Paxton. They hit lefties somewhat better than righties this season, and Paxton's 2.58 overall ERA is misleading — his xFIP and xERA are both in the upper fives.
That gives the visiting team enough of a chance to score to make this full-game YRFI worth playing.
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