We went 3-0 on Tuesday, including the Dodgers' team-specific YRFI at +225. That made for a solid return, covering Monday's losses and putting us in the black for the week.
I've got two more MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 31, both in early games.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets
Marlins vs. Rays
Starting Pitchers: Roddery Munoz vs. Taj Bradley
We have a bit of a good news/bad news situation with this game and bet.
The good news: It's pretty rare to get a -110 NRFI on a game with a 7.5-run total, especially when it features two bottom-10 offenses. That's probably enough to take it without any other information.
The bad news: Marlins starter Roddery Munoz is pretty bad. His ERA sits at 5.61, with similar numbers the first time through the order. Ideally, we'd have a better starter opposite Taj Bradley, who owns a 1.62 ERA and 1.81 xFIP his first time through the order.
Still, this is a solid price on what's essentially a one-sided risk. I don't love it, but I'll trust the model here.
Yankees vs. Phillies
Starting Pitchers: Nestor Cortes vs. Cristopher Sanchez
Similar to the above game, it's rare to catch a -115 YRFI on a game with a total of 9.5 runs. The line at Caesars is a bit off the market, making it stand out.
This game features two solid offenses with a lefty-on-lefty pitching matchup. Broadly speaking, that helps the Phillies and hurts the Yankees, but New York is still solidly above average against southpaws.
Both starters are solid, with xFIPs in the low-to-mid-3s their first time through the order. However, that might not be enough given the quality of offenses against them.
Plus, WeatherEdge is showing a 19% boost to total scoring from this matchup on top of Citizens Bank Park playing like a top-10 scoring stadium to begin with.
