We split a pair of bets on Monday for a return of exactly zero units since the loser was at plus money. Let's see if we can do better than that on Tuesday with a full slate of baseball.
I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and predictions for Tuesday, August 6.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks, Predictions
Billy Ward's Padres vs. Pirates NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Bailey Falter vs. Dylan Cease
There are two big factors that pushed me from "on the fence" to making this bet.
The first is the line at BetMGM. At -125, it's at least ten cents better than the lines elsewhere, a good indicator that it's worth taking.
More importantly, both teams are on the wrong side of their platoon splits in a big way. The Padres are a top-three offense against righties but rank 16th against lefties like Bailey Falter.
Pittsburgh goes from nearly average against lefties to terrible against righties, ranking 28th in wRC+.
With both starters having good but not great numbers early in games, those platoon splits make all the difference.
Billy Ward's Orioles vs. Blue Jays NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Chris Bassitt vs. Grayson Rodriguez
This is a very reasonable price on a YRFI considering the offenses involved, mainly Baltimore, whose lineup starts with four straight hitters who have a 120 or better wRC+ on the season.
Toronto is less impressive overall, but they give us a guaranteed at-bat from Vladdy Guerrero Jr., who has a top-ten wRC+ and has been on an absolute tear lately.
In addition, both pitchers have xFIP numbers in the fours their first time through the order despite relatively solid overall numbers. My model is projecting a fairly solid edge on this one, so grab the -105 before it's too late.
Billy Ward's Brewers vs. Braves NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Colin Rea vs. Bryce Elder
Since the open, the total in this game has gone up a full run, moving from 8.0 to 9.0. Even if that's the peak, a -105 YRFI is fairly notable.
Both pitchers have first-time through-the-order xFIPs in the upper fours, so those nine runs should be at least somewhat front-loaded. Injuries have made both teams tops of the orders less dangerous than they once were, but we still have some fairly solid hitters coming to the plate.
All told, that's more than enough for me, given the price.
