It's been a rough stretch lately, which made yesterday's 2-2 outing a weirdly encouraging result. Still, these slumps are to be expected, and we have to ride them out before getting to the next hot streak.
We have three more MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model picks for Thursday, June 20.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Thursday, June 20
Rays vs. Twins
Starting Pitchers: Zack Littell vs. Simeon Woods Richardson
We're getting a solid price on DraftKings for this NRFI, with their -105 line being about 10 cents off market. That's almost enough to blindly take the NRFI in a game with a total that's bouncing between 7.5 and 8.0 runs like this one.
There's some other reasons to like it, too. The weather forecast is cool with winds blowing in, and both teams hit about 10% worse against righties than lefties with this being a righty-on-righty matchup.
Both starters have overall ERA predictors in the high three/low four range, with Woods Richardson's actual ERA being somewhat below that and Littell's a bit higher. While those aren't super strong numbers, both see a considerable drop in their ERA and xFIP the first time through the order, so they are more likely to give up runs late.
I'd take this at the widely available -115, but obviously prefer the -105 on DraftKings.
Astros vs. White Sox
Starting Pitchers: Spencer Arrigheti vs. Chris Flexen
I'm not projecting a huge edge on this one, but I have it as slightly more likely for a NRFI than not, with fair odds of -112. Since we're getting plus-money on it, that makes it a play — even though it's a little scary.
Both starters have ERAs over 5.00 this season, but give some room for optimism if you dig a bit deeper. Both have considerably better ERA predictors, but there's more to it than that.
Arrigheti has allowed just two combined runs in his prior three starts before getting shelled by the Tigers in his last outing. Normally that would be a bad sign — but he stepped in on short notice when Justin Verlander was scratched on game day.
Given the lack of his typical routine for that game, I'm willing to give him a pass. He's also much better early in games, with a 3.64 xFIP his first time through the order. And he's facing the White Sox, who make the Tigers lineup look like the Yankees.
Then there's Flexen, who comes into this game with a 1.80 ERA his first time through the order that jumps to 6.75 his second time through and over 20 when left in beyond that. That suggests Houston will get to him, but not right away.
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Starting Pitchers: Gavin Stone vs. Ty Blach
These teams have combined for over 15 runs per game in the first three games of the series at Coors Field, and there's no reason to think that stops now. This game features two starters with overall xFIPs of at least four — plus it's at Coors Field, with excellent hitting weather.
Rockies starter Blach also has an ERA over 7.00 his first time through the order, and has to face the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching in the Dodgers.
The biggest reason to take this bet, though, is the line. Caesars is offering -150, where the best available elsewhere is -180. I wouldn't go much past the Caesars line on a straight bet, though it's a reasonable parlay piece at other books. I have the fair value in the -190 to -200 range on the YRFI.
