We went 2-2 on Tuesday for a very slight loss, losing an NRFI with two outs in the bottom of the inning on a wild pitch.
Hopefully, we'll see some positive regression on Wednesday.
I have two more MLB NRFI & YRFImodel picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 3.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Model Predictions (July 3)
Giants vs. Braves
Starting Pitchers: Jordan Hicks vs. Chris Sale
This is a pick I'm slightly nervous about, thanks to the Giants' top-five wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Of course, they aren't facing just any lefty.
They're matched up with Chris Sale, who has a 2.79 overall ERA and even better underlying numbers. His xFIP drops to 2.29 the first time through the order. That's good enough not to sweat the matchup too much.
On the other hand, the Braves have cooled off tremendously after a hot start — losing Ronald Acuna will do that — and now rank 19th in wRC+ against righties.
Converted closer Jordan Hicks unsurprisingly has much better numbers the first time through the order than overall, so it's a perfect combination.
I'm not projecting much value on this one, so grab the Caesars line before it's too late.
Starting Pitchers: Dean Kremer vs. Logan Gilbert
We're returning to the well in a game that cashed for us yesterday.
The NRFI is priced too low on Caesars relative to the seven-run total, making it a solid play without any other information.
Similar to the game above, we also have a situation where the better lineup (Baltimore) has a tougher pitching matchup in Gilbert. Gilbert is a fringe Cy Young candidate with a 2.72 overall ERA, and his ERA and xFIP are slightly lower his first time through the order.
I'm more worried about Kremer, especially since this is his first start returning from a 15-day IL stint. However, any issues are likely to flare up later in the game than earlier. He has an elite 1.23 ERA his first time through the order.
He's also facing the Mariners, who rank 20th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. That's a winnable matchup, making the NRFI a strong play today.
