We spent the first week of June moving laterally, with a total return of 0.06 units over the past seven days of baseball. It sure beats losing, but we'd certainly rather be heading upward.
I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model predictions for Monday, June 10.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Monday, June 10
Yankees vs. Royals
Starting Pitchers: Carlos Rodon vs. Seth Lugo
This one is tricky, as it's still unclear whether or not Juan Soto will be back in the Yankees' lineup on Monday. In their three games without Soto, the Yankees have averaged 3.33 runs, considerably lower than the 4.95 they've averaged this season.
If Soto is in, this line is a steal. We'd get first inning at-bats from the two best hitters in baseball (Soto and Aaron Judge) in a winnable pitching matchup.
Royals starter Seth Lugo has a 2.13 ERA, but his xERA, xFIP and SIERA numbers are considerably worse than that. Both his ERA and xFIP are higher the first time through the order, as well.
It's a similar story in the other half of the inning, with Rodon having leading indicators more than a run higher than his actual ERA — though he's been comparatively better early in games.
The Royals also have two borderline elite hitters near the top of their lineup in Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez, and their wRC+, as a team, is better against lefties.
At the -105 or so range, this one is projecting right around the betting line without Soto.
My guess is the total, and therefore the YRFI price, will rise with news on his injury status, making this worth taking early in the day.
However, if you want to wait for firmer news, I'd play the line to -125 with Soto confirmed in.
White Sox vs. Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Erick Fedde vs. Logan Gilbert
I typically don't like to take NRFIs at prices this long, but my model is still showing strong value in this one.
A large part of that is due to the very low seven-run total in the game. Chicago is the worst offense in baseball against right-handed pitching, and it's implied for less than three runs here.
That means it's pretty much a one-way risk with the Mariners. Seattle doesn't have an especially strong lineup either, and it has a tough matchup against Erick Fedde.
Fedde has a 3.27 overall ERA that drops to 1.98 his first time through the order, with similar xFIP splits. While his xFIP numbers are both higher than his ERA, a game at the worst hitters park in baseball probably won't result in regression kicking in.
If you're unwilling to lay the heavy juice, this could also be used as a potential parlay piece for other MLB bets today.
