I made a mistake yesterday, running the NRFI model before the Braves announced a starting pitcher change from Reynaldo Lopez to Ray Kerr. Somehow it didn't matter, as we still went 2-0 on the day, bringing the total return on the season to 37 units of profit.
I have two MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model predictions for Friday, May 31.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Friday Model Picks & Predictions
Tigers vs. Red Sox
Starting Pitchers: Kenta Maeda vs. Tanner Houck
I know, I know: Tigers bets haven't worked out for us this year.
Hear me out, though. Kenta Maeda is terrible, with a 5.80 overall ERA this season. He's somehow been even worse early in games, with both his xFIP and xERA being higher the first time through the order.
That gives Boston a very strong projection here, especially considering its top-heavy lineup. Three of its first four hitters have a wRC+ of 126 or higher on the season.
Detroit is doing just enough here to justify the game-YRFI rather than the Boston team line. While Tanner Houck is good (both overall and early), his xERA is considerably higher than his ERA, so he's due for some regression.
I wouldn't blame anyone for passing on this bet, but I'm trusting my model.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets
Starting Pitchers: Jordan Montgomery vs. Luis Severino
This one is fairly pricey — especially if you can't get the Caesars line — but there's enough going for it. I'm willing to pay the juice.
First off, the game has a total of just seven at most books, so there won't be much scoring in general.
Secondly, both starters have been excellent early in games. Montgomery's xFIP drops from 4.25 overall to 2.78 his first time through the order, while Severino goes from 4.21 to 3.63.
On top of that, both teams are on the wrong side of their platoon splits. Arizona ranks 25th in wRC+ against righties, while New York is 21st against lefties — both are top-10 against the opposite side pitchers.
That's enough to pay the juice at widely available lines, but is an absolute steal at Caesars.
