Thursday MLB NRFI & YRFI bets gave us a 1-2 record for a bit of a loss, but we're still up roughly two units on the week — with a chance for more on Friday.
Weather permitting, I have four MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model picks for Friday, June 14.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Model Picks for Friday (June 14)
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Starting Pitchers: Luis Gil vs. Brayan Bello
It's not a given that this game even happens, given the weather report out of Boston tonight.
However, my intuition is a late start probably helps the YRFI, as it would disrupt the typical warm up and preparation of the starting pitchers.
Even without that factor, I like this bet.
While Luis Gil has been excellent in his official rookie campaign, his 2.03 ERA belies xFIP and SIERA numbers in the mid threes. His xFIP climbs a bit further his first time through the order to 3.92.
Most of the value is coming from the Yankees, though. With the two best hitters in baseball getting first inning at-bats, they're always reasonably likely for a YRFI.
Brayan Bello has a 4.78 overall ERA that goes up slightly his first time through the order, as does his xFIP.
That's enough to think that some of the 9.5 implied runs are likely to happen in the first inning, with this YRFI fairly reasonably priced.
Padres vs. Mets
Starting Pitchers: Matt Waldron vs. Sean Manaea
I can't believe the price we're getting on the NRFI in this one. We have a moderate eight-run total, and I'd still show value even if it slid up to 8.5.
Part of that is due to the pitchers. Waldron has a solid 3.90 xFIP that dips to 3.36 his first time through the order. That's solid, especially against a slightly below-average Mets offense against right-handed pitching.
Manaea hasn't been as good overall, with a 4.30 ERA and 4.29 xFIP on the season. However, those numbers drop to 2.42 and 3.41, respectively, his first time through the order.
He's also taking on the Padres, who have some of the most extreme platoon splits in baseball. Their 124 wRC+ against righties ranks second in baseball — against lefties it dips to 97 (18th).
My guess is the pricing algorithms aren't taking into account San Diego's southpaw struggles and is pricing this one based on its overall numbers, which is where our edge lies.
Rays vs. Braves
Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale vs. Zack Littell
The biggest factor here is the Braves' lineup. Since losing Ronald Acuna Jr. for the season, just one of their first three hitters has an above-average wRC+, and even then Ozzie Albies' 109 mark barely fits that criteria.
They're taking on Zack Littell and his 3.63 ERA/3.71 overall xFIP. And both of those numbers drop considerably his first time through the order.
On the other side, I'm not projecting much risk from the Rays against Sale. They're a roughly league-average team against lefties, but Sale has a 2.24 xFIP his first time through the order.
Rangers vs. Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Andrew Heaney vs. Luis Castillo
We've hit Mariners NRFIs in three straight days, and I don't plan on stopping now. Obviously much of that was due to their series against the horrible White Sox offense, but this one is projecting fairly strong, as well.
They're starting Luis Castillo, who has an elite 1.74 ERA his first time through the order. Texas is a solidly average offense against righties, but Castillo's numbers speak for themselves.
On the other side, Andrew Heaney sees his ERA dip from 4.22 overall to 3.46 his first time through the order. Those numbers are worse than Castillo's, but Seattle is also a worse offense, so it balances out.
This game has just a seven-run total, making the -130 line at Caesars a huge value. I wouldn't go too much past that, but jump on it while you can.
