Another three-pick NRFI sweep on Monday brings our Memorial Day weekend results to 8-1, with the lone loss coming on a half-unit bet. Let's keep it going into Tuesday.
I have four MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model predictions for Tuesday, May 28.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Tuesday Model Predictions (5/28)
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Starting Pitchers: Brayan Bello vs. Grayson Rodriguez
This game is almost breaking my projections, thanks to the extreme difference between Rodriguez's overall xFIP of 4.05 and first-time-through-the-order xFIP of 6.10.
We're still operating with a relatively small sample size of eight starts, and his ERA is just 3.24 the first time through the order.
Those numbers should converge in theory, though I doubt either finish on the wrong side of six. Still, it's a strong indicator that he's been worse early in games. Plus, his K/9 rate the first time through comes in at about half his overall mark.
Outside of that, Camden Yards is also one of the best ballparks for left-handed hitting, and five of the six hitters who are guaranteed first-inning at-bats in this contest are lefties or switch hitters. Plus, Rafael Devers is projected to bat fourth for Boston.
The forecast also calls for wind out to right field, further boosting lefty bats.
Altogether, that's enough to play this YRFI at the current price, even with an 8.5-run total.
Royals vs. Twins
Starting Pitchers: Cole Ragans vs. Simeon Woods-Richardson
My projection here is driven by the pitchers.
Both have been very solid overall, with Ragans holding a 3.34 ERA and Woods-Richardson sitting at 2.57. More importantly, both start extremely strong with ERAs of 3.29 and 1.72, respectively, the first time through the order.
Their xFIP numbers back those up, with similar or better numbers than their actual ERAs.
While this one is slightly juicy for the eight-run total, the strength of both pitchers makes it a play.
Guardians vs. Rockies
Starting Pitchers: Triston McKenzie vs. Ryan Feltner
I've mostly avoided Coors Field YRFIs this year. They tend to be too expensive relative to their projection since the home team is one of baseball's worst offenses and rarely contributes to the cause.
However, today is a unique case.
Guardians starter Triston McKenzie has an xFIP and ERA north of five his first time through the order, meaning he has about a 50% chance of allowing a first-inning run on his own under normal circumstances.
He also has a flyball rate over 50% and a low strikeout rate, making him especially poorly suited to pitch at Coors.
On the other side, Ryan Feltner also has ERA and xFIP numbers over five his first time through the order, making the superior Guardians offense fairly likely to score as well.
The -120 line at Caesars is already solid thanks to the double-digit total, but the dynamics of both pitchers make it even better.
Yankees vs. Angels
Starting Pitchers: Nestor Cortes vs. Griffin Canning
There's a lot to like for both offenses here.
Many don't think of the Angels as a strong offense this year, but they're a top-five unit in terms of wRC+ against lefties and are facing southpaw Nestor Cortes here.
The Yankees are facing a right-handed pitcher — and they're the top offense against righties.
On top of that, Griffin Canning has been bad overall with a 5.05 ERA and 5.15 xFIP. He's somehow been even worse at the start of games with a 7.29 ERA and 5.37 xFIP.
The -105 offered at BetMGM is a tremendous line. If you can't get that, the Yankees-specific YRFI or Yankees first-inning moneyline are solid alternatives.
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