We had a quiet but successful day on Thursday, cashing our only bet to move the season record to 19-9 (+10.47 units). Friday brings a much bigger MLB slate, and three first inning bets.
For the curious, you can find a general explanation of the model process in the link below, as well as information on the updates we made for the 2024 season. Let's get to my MLB NRFI picks in Friday's model predictions for April 5.
MLB NRFI Picks, Odds: Friday Model Predictions (April 5)
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
NRFI Odds, Picks for Thursday, April 4
Tigers vs. Athletics (NRFI): Detroit has its ace, Tarik Skubal, on the mound for their home opener. Because of that, Oakland is implied for under three runs today, with a roughly 15% chance to get one across in the first. While Detroit is a bit more of a threat, the Tigers are working on short rest after 20 innings of baseball yesterday and flying in late from New York. Add temperatures in the low 40s at first pitch and we have a solid setup for a slow start offensively.
Rays vs. Rockies (Over 1.5 First Inning Runs): With the 12.5-run total in Denver, the regular YRFI is far too juicy for my taste. Instead, there's a couple of alternate options. Tampa Bay's team-specific line at +140 is showing a slight value in my model, but I prefer the over 1.5-run line at a better price. I'm projecting a mean run total in the first inning of 1.48, making this one about a coin flip with +150 odds. Bet this at half of your usual ERFI unit.
Phillies vs. Nationals (NRFI): Taking a NRFI in a Patrick Corbin start is always scary, but to his credit he's been somewhat better early on in games. Between the lack of a scoring threat on the Washington side and the low-juice line, we'll hold our nose and hope Corbin can give us three outs before the first run is scored.
