For Wednesday, May 14, I'm on four MLB home run props: Brandon Lowe (against the Blue Jays), Pete Alonso (against the Pirates), Brent Rooker (against the Dodgers) and Mookie Betts (against the Athletics).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Wednesday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Wednesday, May 14
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
| 10:10 p.m. | |
| 10:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for May 14
Brandon Lowe (+575)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Chris Bassitt)
Chris Bassitt started the season on a heater, but he's regressed over his last three starts, giving up two home runs in each outing.
Historically, Bassitt has been one of the best matchups in the league for left-handed power hitters (1.54 and 2.03 HR/9 over the last two seasons).
I have the true odds on Brandon Lowe over 100 points lower, making this a great EV bet.
Pete Alonso (+350)
vs Pirates (SP: LHP Bailey Falter)
Pete Alonso against a subpar left-hander in Bailey Falter? Don't overthink this one.
Falter has allowed 1.38 HR/9 in his career to righties despite playing in good pitchers ballparks for half his career. The fly-ball and hard-contact numbers for Falter are above average and Alonso has been on an absolute tear this season.
Alonso owns a career-high barrel rate this season and is close to a career-high hard-contact rate.
I have the true odds on Alonso around +300.
Brent Rooker (+500)
at Dodgers (SP: RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
I know that the matchup is a tough one, but the odds on Brent Rooker are far too good to pass up.
Rooker is one of the best power hitters in the league and all the underlying power numbers have been great this season.
Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been good at suppressing power in his career, but he only has average numbers vs. righties (1.11 HR/9).
The wind is blowing out at 11 mph tonight, which should be a plus for power.
I have the true odds for Rooker over 100 points lower today, making this a great EV bet.
Mookie Betts (+550)
vs Athletics (SP: RHP Gunnar Hoglund)
I know that the power numbers have been down for Mookie Betts this season, but he's still one of the best power hitters in the league and the spot here isn't bad.
We don't have a huge sample size on Gunnar Hoglund in the majors, but he grades out as a plus matchup for righty power.
Again, the wind in Los Angeles is blowing out pretty heavily, which should help with power.
I have the true odds on Betts around +450.
