Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +177225 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles
Guardians vs. Orioles, 1:05 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: L. Allen (LHP)
Back to the Ryan Mountcastle well.
Logan Allen has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball to date. The left-hander has a double-digit barrel rate and an xERA over 1.5 runs higher than actual. His hard-hit rate nears 45% while his xSLG sits at .473.
Yet, Allen has yet to give up more than three runs in a given start. That should change here against a Baltimore offense that crushes left-handed pitching. A player I’m specifically targeting is Mountcastle.
You don’t want to bet the slugging first baseman against righties. But he is a certified lefty killer. In 70 at-bats, Mountcastle is slashing .329/.351/.714 with seven home runs and six doubles.
In other words, on 56.5% of his hits against lefties, it’s gone for extra bases. Mountcastle ranks in the top 6% of all hitters in barrel rate and xSLG and his average exit velocity is just outside the top 10.
His xSLG has taken yet another step forward this season (.573) and I expect that to continue, especially given the matchup on Monday afternoon. I’m throwing .5u on him to get over 1.5 total bases (-105) at FanDuel and dabbling on him to find the bleachers (+500) at .1u, too.
Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves
Braves vs. Athletics, 8:07 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: P. Blackburn (RHP)
Paul Blackburn makes his first appearance of the season for the Athletics and draws a nightmare matchup against the Braves. Blackburn hasn’t pitched since last August, but in six rehab starts between Class-A Stockton and Triple-A Las Vegas, he had a 7.50 ERA.
Obviously it was just Blackburn working back but even at the majors, he had some concerns with being hit hard. His xBA sat in the bottom 20% of all pitchers and his xSLG crept above .400.
A lot of that has to do with his inclination to pitch to contact. He has a deep arsenal but his hard stuff tops out in the low 90s. Given the fact he’s pitching to major league competition for the first time in a year — with a new pitch clock and baseballs that seem to be juiced up more compared to last season — I’m looking to fade him out the gate.
Ronald Acuna has a firm grasp on the National League MVP through two months of the year given his incredible performance and I’m expecting him to have a great game on Monday. His plate discipline and offensive skill set is quite literally incredible.
He ranks in the top 1% of all hitters in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, xwOBA, xBA and xSLG. He’s top 5% in hard-hit rate and has a 14.7 barrel%. He is one of the best pure hitters in baseball — which is obvious — but is also padded with plenty of scary power bats behind him.
You can’t pitch around Acuna. If you do and walk him, he will steal second (NL-best 22 stolen bases). Matt Olson and Austin Riley await on deck and in the hole, two of the hottest bats in baseball right now. Pick your poison.
I’m rolling with Acuna who has continually hit the ball hard and has put in impressive at-bats despite not finding the bleachers in the last 10 games. I’m backing him to get over 1.5 total bases (-110) at BetMGM to .1u on HR (+450) at Bet365.
Mookie Betts
Nationals vs. Dodgers, 9:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: T. Williams (RHP)
In the Dodgers’ 11-10 loss to Tampa on Sunday afternoon, there was one blatant goose egg in the box score: Mookie Betts’ 0-for-5 day.
I’m expecting the right-hander to bounce back on Monday in a perfect matchup against Trevor Williams. After a strong month of April, the right-hander has begun to show some cracks. He’s given up five home runs in his last three starts and has an xERA outside of 5.
Williams’ biggest issue has been a 13.8 barrel%, nearly double from last season! Opponents have been crushing him (.507 xSLG) as he relies on inducing soft contact and chases outside of the zone for success. His strikeout rate is a career-worst 17.5%.
Enter Betts, who has taken a step forward from last season by all advanced metrics. His barrel rate has jumped to 11.6%, his best mark since 2018, and has seen his xBA (.258), xSLG (.486) and plate discipline increase from last season.
Atop the Dodgers order in a lineup that crushes right-handed pitching, I’m expecting LA to come in angry following that series loss to the Rays. They have an opportunity to beat up on Williams and the lowly Nationals, and Betts has the necessary protection to take advantage.
Behind him? Freddie Freeman and Will Smith.
Betts ranks in the top 15% of all hitters in average exit velocity and after that three game series against Tampa where he went 1-for-13, I’m expecting a strong performance in the Dodgers’ first home game since mid-May.
And if Williams gets an early hook — which he likely will — the Nationals bullpen has the fourth-worst xFIP in MLB. This game could get out of hand real quick and batting in the one spot, Betts should see 5 at-bats on Monday night.
His best line for total bases and home run is at Bet365. I threw .5u on over 1.5 total bases (+120) and .1u on home run (+425).
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Monday, May 29
- Ryan Mountcastle (+500)
- Ronald Acuna (+450)
- Mookie Betts (+425)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at Bet365 comes in at $1,732.50. Enjoy Memorial Day!
