Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant.
One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot, and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +18616 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Mookie Betts, Dodgers
Nationals vs. Dodgers, 4:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (LHP)
I seem to circle back to Mookie Betts often, but that’s to be expected when a left-hander takes the mound opposite the Dodgers. He's one of the few consistent bats who crushes southpaws (147 wRC+) and sits in the leadoff spot, which should translate to at least four — if not five — at-bats.
That wRC+ number is telling for Betts because his average is just .264 against left-handed pitching. But in his 14 hits, he’s hit four home runs and four doubles. He also has a proven track record, as he hit over .300 the year prior.
Wednesday presents a great matchup for Betts, as the Nationals send out Patrick Corbin. I wrote about taking Bobby Witt Jr. against Corbin last time out — he finished with two home runs in the game — and I think Betts has a great matchup here.
Corbin ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in three important categories: xBA, xSLG and K%. His plus command makes walks often a non-issue — a positive for total base props — and his low strikeout rate translates to more balls being put in play.
He ranks in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in average exit velocity as well, showing the clear advantage hitters have had against the southpaw.
Corbin’s slider is his best pitch, but he can’t use it as often if he’s not ahead in the count. That means his sinker (.341 xBA) and fastball (.418 xBA) become used more often in the rotation, which leads to disaster.
I love this spot for Betts to bounce back. He hasn’t had an extra base hit in the last five games, but he’s been seeing the ball better. Plenty of his at-bats have resulted in hard-hit outs or singles, and given the plus matchup here against Corbin, success should follow suit.
I’m putting .5u on Betts over 1.5 total bases (-115) and .1u on him to find the bleachers (+360) at bet365.
Bryce Harper, Phillies
Phillies vs. Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (RHP)
After a long four-game series against Atlanta, Bryce Harper sat in the series opener against the Mets last night. He’ll return to the lineup with seemingly a great matchup against Carlos Carrasco.
Let’s start with Harper. The lefty slugger returned early from injury and has torn right-handed pitching to shreds. In 49 at-bats, Harper is hitting .388 with a 1.120 OPS. Of his 19 hits, seven have gone for extra bases (two home runs).
He does walk a lot — which can be a concern with total bases props — but it also shows he’s selective and often finds the right pitch when he makes contact.
Since returning from the injured list, Harper has an impressive 12.9 barrel% and .510 xSLG. His numbers remain in line with last season; his average exit velocity is down a tad, but it's nothing to be concerned about.
Meanwhile, Carrasco is as messy as it comes for New York. The right-hander has seen his strikeout rate drop 10%, and he now sits with a 2.7 K-BB%, among the worst in baseball. His barrel rate has reached double digits for the second time in his career and opponents have a .486 xSLG against him.
There aren’t many positives with Carrasco. He was able to throw 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball against the sliding Cubs, but his xERA remains a career-worst 5.72. He’s even benefited from a .244 BABIP — his career average is .310 — which could foreshadow another bad start from the 36-year-old.
I’m putting .5u on Harper to go over 1.5 total bases (+105) and .1u on him to hit a home run (+425) at bet365.
Masataka Yoshida, Red Sox
Reds vs. Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Luke Weaver (RHP)
This is a fun one. While Masataka Yoshida doesn’t have the home run power that Rafael Devers has, his numbers are incredibly more impressive against right-handed pitching.
It may come as a shock to you, but Devers has actually been a below-average hitter (88 wRC+) against righties.
Yoshida? He has a team-best 141 wRC+ and his ISO is .202, just a tad behind the slugging lefty Devers. And why I love him in the prop market is that he doesn't strike out. He’s in the third percentile of all hitters (10.3 K%) and top-10 in whiff rate.
Yoshida is about league average in barrel rate (7.5%), but the power is still there. He’s a plus hitter in every metric and the left-hander has an impressive .276 xBA. Against right-handed pitching, he's hitting .318 with a .519 slugging.
And of his 41 hits, 37% have gone for extra bases. He has five home runs in the process.
He’ll face off with Luke Weaver, who's looking to build off an impressive 6 1/3 shutout innings against St. Louis.
But I’m not keen on the right-hander replicating that success. While he doesn’t walk many batters, he has an issue with letting up hard hits.
More specifically, he’s in the bottom 6% of all pitchers in barrel rate (12.9%).
His xSLG (.455) is his worst since 2016 and his hard-hit rate is a near-replica of his 2022 season, when he had a 5.45 xERA. Weaver has given up nine home runs in seven starts, but when they come, it’s often in bunches. He’s given up 2+ home runs three separate times.
This is a perfect matchup for Yoshida. He crushes right-handed pitching and Weaver gives up some of the hardest contact in MLB. Barrels are a constant and Weaver often can’t overpower a hitter, which should be an issue against Boston’s lineup.
Yoshida should see four to five at-bats on Wednesday night, and I love grabbing his over 1.5 total bases at plus money (+110) for .5u.
I'm also on him to hit a HR (+675) for .1u at bet365.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Wednesday, May 31
- Mookie Betts (+360)
- Bryce Harper (+425)
- Masataka Yoshida (+675)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at bet365 comes in at $1,861.
