Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling, and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total.
But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant.
One of the areas I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +20296 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Jorge Soler, Miami Marlins
Athletics vs. Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: S. Fujinami (RHP)
Marlins' Jorge Soler is a lefty killer. That’s all you need to know.
But in all seriousness, his numbers are incredible against southpaws. His wRC+ is 257 and 65% of all his hits have gone for extra bases. He has nine home runs and slashes .340/.450/.920.
His numbers take a dip against right-handed pitching, but he remains in the top 5% of all hitters in max exit velocity, barrel rate and xSLG. He nearly barrels a fifth of all balls put into play.
Shintaro Fujinami gets the start on Friday for Oakland, but he will be quickly followed by bulk-pitcher Hogan Harris. Fujinami has struggled mightily, too, ranking in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
As for Harris, after his debut in April went extremely poorly — 1/3 of an inning, five walks, one hit and six runs — he threw five scoreless against the Astros on Saturday. But I’m considering that more of a fluke than anything.
Harris made 16 starts over the last two seasons in Triple-A. His HR/9 sat above 1.00 both times and his xFIP was never lower than 5.00. He generates ground balls only about a third of the time, too.
Last season, opposing hitters in the minors hit a fly ball or line drive on 64.7% of all balls in play. That’s a concern against Soler, a power-hitting righty who crushes southpaws.
He hasn’t hit a home run in the last four games, but that follows a seven-game stretch where he found the outfield seats six times.
I’m backing the slugger to go over 1.5 total bases (+125) and to hit a HR (+425), both found at bet365.
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals vs. Pirates, 7:05 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: R. Contreras (RHP)
This is a great buy spot for the Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt after a relatively quiet May.
Goldschmidt ranks in the top 5% of all hitters in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and xSLG. His plate discipline and low chase rate contribute to his success and make him a hard hitter to overpower.
Tack on his career-best 14.5 barrel rate, and Goldschmidt is a perfect candidate against Roansy Contreras on Friday.
Contreras was moved out of the starting rotation to the bullpen, but he has since rejoined it after an injury to Vince Velasquez. His pitches have taken a step back and the result is a 16.4 strikeout rate and a concerning .274 xBA and .438 xSLG.
The righty allows a ton of hard contact — bottom 25% of all pitchers in average exit velocity — and prior to his relief outing on Sunday, Contreras had given up five home runs in four May starts.
He does have an issue at times with command, but I expect Goldschmidt to wait for his pitch and find success, much like he has all season. Goldschmidt has a 157 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and a stunning .245 ISO; 47% of his hits have gone for extra bases.
I’m backing him to go over 1.5 total bases (-105) for .5u at BetMGM, and I'm throwing .1u on him to hit a HR (+330) at FanDuel.
LaMonte Wade Jr., San Francisco Giants
Orioles vs. Giants, 10:15 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: D. Kremer (RHP)
Dean Kremer has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball to date. His xERA is nearly two runs higher than actual, and he’s among the top of the list when it comes to being due for negative regression.
The right-hander relies on pitching to contact and has a chase rate that ranks in the bottom 13% of all pitchers. He’s posted career-worst numbers in xBA, xSLG and hard-hit rate, yet has thrown to a 2.45 ERA in the month of May.
Given his struggles with a double-digit barrel rate and low strikeout numbers, the Giants' offense is a perfect matchup here, specifically LaMonte Wade Jr. The lefty has one of the best eyes on the team and bats atop the order — meaning he’ll see four to five plate appearances on Friday.
Against right-handed pitching, Wade is among the best Giants with a 143 wRC+. He’s hitting .289 with an .899 OPS and has once again posted another season with a barrel rate above 10%. His xSLG numbers mirror 2021 when he hit 18 home runs and added plenty of extra-base hits.
The one concern with Wade is his plate discipline. But Kremer pounds the zone and relies on contact for outs — so walks shouldn’t be a big issue. And in Oracle Park, Wade actually has a higher OPS despite that high wall in right.
Kremer has a propensity for being hit hard and the struggles just haven’t followed suit. Following my liking of the Giants as a side on Friday, I expect a strong performance from Wade.
I'm throwing .5u on him to get over 1.5 total bases (+135), as well as a stab at him finding the outfield seats (+825) at bet365.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Friday, June 2
- Jorge Soler (+425)
- Paul Goldschmidt (+330)
- LaMonte Wade Jr. (+825)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at bet365 comes in at $2,030.
