Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runsprops.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +20407 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
Royals vs. Tigers, 6:40 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (RHP)
Returning from injury after the first week of June, Kerry Carpenter has been the best Tigers hitter and it hasn’t been particularly close.
The left-hander is hitting .400 and found the outfield seats for the first time since that return on Sunday against the Twins. He’s seen his average skyrocket from .233 to .279 in a matter of two weeks and has gone over 1.5 total bases in five of nine starts (55%).
With Matt Vierling questionable (back) and Riley Greene on the injured list, Carpenter has planted himself as the team's best bat against right-handed pitching (112 wRC+, .198 ISO). And he draws a great matchup against Jordan Lyles on Monday.
Lyles has once again seen his strikeout rate decrease and has posted a career-worst 11.1 barrel% and .491 xSLG. He has given up over 2 HR/9 this season and an atrocious 14.0% HR/FB ratio. His ground ball rate is also down at a career-low 31.5%.
The Tigers' offense is never an easy one to back. But Carpenter is not only swinging a hot bat, he packs one of the hardest punches in this lineup. His 13.2 barrel% is well above average and he should find success here tonight in the hot Detroit sun.
As always, .5u on him over 1.5 total bases (+120) and .1u on HR (+525), both found at Bet365.
Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds
Rockies vs. Reds, 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Austin Gomber (LHP)
So long as Austin Gomber continues to pitch in the Rockies' rotation, I will continue to find ways to fade the left-hander.
Gomber ranks in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in xBA (.316) and xSLG (.567). His xERA is a concerning 7.21 and yet, he continues to pitch every fifth day. This is a southpaw who relies on pitching to contact, doesn’t generate chases or whiffs and has given up three or more runs in six of his last seven starts.
He is no stranger to the long ball, either. Gomber has given up 10 home runs in his last seven starts, and that includes a goose egg against the Red Sox his last time out. His barrel rate is a career-worst 10% in what poses to be a high-scoring affair in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Enter Matt McLain, who has absolutely torched left-handed pitching this season. He has a 179 wRC+ and an average that has crept toward .400. Not really known as a power hitter, McLain does have a pair of home runs against southpaws, and 46% of his hits overall have gone for extra bases in this scenario.
All the talk has been about Elly De La Cruz and even Spencer Steer’s promotion to the majors, but McLain hast quietly been incredible. He’s got a double-digit barrel rate and remains a mainstay as the two batter in this red-hot Reds lineup.
Even if Gomber hits the showers early, McLain is a versatile hitter. He hits above .300 against right-handed pitching as well, and his power drops just a tad. Regardless, he should see plenty of at-bats and is one of the best pure hitters in this Reds lineup. He has finished with over 1.5 total bases in 58% of his last 12 games.
In this plus matchup for McLain, I am putting .5u on him over 1.5 total bases (+115) at DraftKings and .1u on HR (+450) at FanDuel.
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
Padres vs. Giants, 9:45 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Ryan Walker (RHP)
One of the biggest early-season storylines has been the San Diego Padres’ offensive woes. Manny Machado was among the top of the list of the struggles. He enters Monday with an average below .250 and just eight home runs.
But there are a lot of positives in Machado’s game of late. For starters, he’s hitting .295 in the month of June with three home runs. He’s had a hit in eight of the last 10 games and has over 1.5 total bases on six occasions.
Most notably, Machado’s hard-hit rate has steadily increased over the last month:
Machado looks like a different player at the plate as the season nears its halfway point, and in a bullpen game against San Francisco, I’m looking to target the power-hitting righty. His max exit velocity remains among the best in baseball.
Another big reason toward liking Machado to find the bleachers tonight is the weather. Despite expected temperatures around 60 degrees at game time, the wind will be blowing out around 15-20 mph to left center.
Based on a 56-game sample from RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge app, we should see an expected 18.7% increase in home runs and 7.9% increase in total runs.
Despite a bullpen game for the Giants, I really like the idea of buying low on Machado here, especially in the favorable hitting conditions. I took .5u on him over 1.5 total bases (+110) and .1u on HR (+525) at Bet365.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Day, Date
- Kerry Carpenter (+525)
- Matt McClain (+450)
- Manny Machado (+525)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at Bet365 comes in at $2,040.78
