Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling, and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total.
But opportunities to fade pitchers, at a lesser degree, remains a constant.
One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s.
In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident, or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers.
Today's lottery ticket comes with +20619 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
Blue Jays vs. Rays, 6:40 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Y. Kikuchi (L)
An Action Network consistent fade, Yusei Kikuchi gets the nod on Wednesday night. And after a strong April, the southpaw has fallen down to Earth.
Kikuchi’s xERA is about a run higher than actual, and he’s seen his already-alarming xBA and xSLG take yet another step backwards in 2023. The lefty ranks in the bottom 10% in hard-hit rate (47.5) and bottom 16% in both xSLG (.502) and barrel rate (11.5).
That takes me to Randy Arozarena.
He's been incredible this season against left-handed pitching, with a 229 wRC+ and .469 ISO. Both of those are considered elite. Through 32 at-bats, Arozarena has five home runs — 11 hits — and a 1.195 OPS.
The metrics on Arozarena are incredibly impressive. He’s in the top 5% of all hitters in barrel rate, max exit velocity and xwOBA, and in the top 10% in average exit velocity and xSLG. He doesn’t chase often and has a perfect matchup against Kikuchi, who's home run prone.
Arozarena has one home run and three hits against Kikuchi in his career. Kikuchi, meanwhile, has given up 12 home runs in 46 1/3 innings.
I put .5u on his over 1.5 total bases (+130) at BetMGM and .1u on HR (+420) at FanDuel.
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers vs. Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Bryce Elder (R)
Bryce Elder could be the death of me. He remains one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball, with an expected ERA over 2.5 runs higher than actual. He's in the bottom 6% of all pitchers in hard-hit rate and has seen both his barrel rate (8.1%) and xSLG (.424) take a drastic step forward in his second season.
His command is relatively strong and he isn’t an overpowering pitcher, rather he relies on generating chases out of the zone.
One of the most patient hitters in the Dodgers' lineup is Will Smith, who'll wait for his pitch and has incredible numbers across the board.
Smith is the second-best hitter against right-handed pitching from a wRC+ standpoint (164) and has an impressive .233 ISO. He's in the top 1% of all hitters in strikeout rate and has an xBA/xSLG of .295 and .488, respectively.
I expect a high-scoring game between the Dodgers and Braves, and Smith should be at the forefront of the offense. LA’s 1-5 in the batting order is arguably MLB’s best and forces pitchers to attack even in hitters’ counts.
Smith snapped a 1-for-14 streak on Tuesday, with three hits, including a double. I placed .5u on Smith to finish over 1.5 total bases (+105) and threw .1u on his HR prop at (+550).
Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
Athletics vs. Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: K. Wadlichuk (L)
The Seattle Mariners have struggled out of the gate this season and a lot of it has fallen on the lack of production from their superstar Julio Rodriguez. He was the key cog to the offense a season ago, but has battled plate discipline at times this season.
But over the last week, I’ve been more impressed with his approach to at-bats.
When he’s able to make contact with the ball, it’s often crushed. He ranks in the top 2% of all hitters in max exit velocity and top 12% in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
In the series opener against Oakland, Rodriguez legged a bloop single into a double with his legs. As much as he’s struggled all season, his hard-hit rate, isolated power and wOBA have all taken a step up in the last 10 games.
He’ll be tasked with another southpaw — he went 3-for-4 two days ago against a lefty — in Ken Waldichuk, who has a lot of concerns. His xERA is above six and his barrel rate (10.7%) and xSLG (.511) are among the worst in MLB.
He doesn’t generate swings and misses — which is a positive sign for Rodriguez — but does have command issues at times.
But given his wonky command, it could lead to plenty of silver-platter opportunities for Rodriguez, who has boasted plenty of power in his two years with Seattle.
I expect Rodriguez to bounce back and turn his season around, and I love his chances tonight against Waldichuk and an Athletics bullpen that ranks dead last in xFIP.
Similar to the other two, I’m throwing .5u on his over 1.5 total bases (+125) at BetMGM and .1u to hit a HR (+525) at Caesars.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Wednesday, May 24
- Randy Arozarena
- Will Smith
- Julio Rodriguez
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at Caesars comes in at $2,071.88.
