Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runprops.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home runprops can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +17198 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
MLB Home Run Props & Picks
Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees
Rays vs. Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Tyler Glasnow (RHP)
Anthony Rizzo has become a huge point of criticism for the Yankees over the last couple of months. While Aaron Judge was sidelined, the lefty’s production all but diminished and he went two months without hitting a home run.
Despite the success not following suit, Rizzo remains an above-average hitter in exit velocity, and over the last couple of weeks we’ve seen his hard-hit rate begin to climb back toward his career average mark.
He draws an incredibly tough matchup on Monday, but one where the value is too much to pass up on the left-hander. Tyler Glasnow takes the mound for Tampa and has been dominant in the month of July (2.30 ERA, 43 strikeouts in 31 1/3 innings).
But the hard-throwing righty ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in barrel rate (15.3%) and bottom 5% in hard-hit rate. Glasnow has elite swing-and-miss stuff and there’s no denying that. It also leaves him prone to be hit hard — if you can time the high-90s heater — and we’ve seen that with eight home runs allowed over 11 starts.
Judge’s return to the lineup should boost the Yankees' offense in general, and I’m expecting Rizzo to figure things out as the season comes to an end. This is still the same slugger who hit 11 home runs in the Yankees' first 46 games this season. He’s also got the hitter-friendly short porch in right tonight.
The best number on his home run prop is +575 at bet365.
Gary Sanchez, San Diego Padres
Padres vs. Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Austin Gomber (LHP)
Despite Austin Gomber’s success in June, I am going to continually fade the southpaw in the home run market at Coors Field.
While Fernando Tatis Jr.'s and Manny Machado’s odds reflect playing in a hitter-friendly park, one Padre in particular stands out: Gary Sanchez.
It may come as a surprise, but Sanchez is the most powerful bat when it comes to facing left-handed pitching. His .396 ISO leads the team by a staggering margin and he has a .917 OPS — six of his 14 hits have left the park — compared to a sub-.700 OPS against righties.
Sanchez initially burst onto the season in San Diego and crushed five home runs in a nine-game span before cooling off heavily. But over the last week, he’s begun to swing a hot bat again. Over the last five games, Sanchez is hitting .400 with three home runs.
Is he more home run-or-bust than the other Padres? Definitely. But he also swings one of the better bats on the team and carries a 12.4 barrel%, higher than both Tatis and Machado.
Gomber remains in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in xBA, xSLG and strikeout rate. He has a 7.19 ERA at Coors Field and has allowed 14 home runs in just over 60 innings. That’s a staggering enough number to fade the southpaw against a hot-swinging bat in Sanchez.
For what it’s worth, Sanchez has faced Gomber three times and did find the bleachers in his lone hit. The best available number for his home run prop is +360 at FanDuel or bet365.
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks vs. Giants, 9:45 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Alex Cobb (RHP)
Elly De La Cruz continues to receive all the hype among this rookie class, but it’s Corbin Carroll who has quietly dominated.
There’s a lot to love about the left-handed outfielder. The All-Star is not only one of the fastest players in baseball, but he carries a ton of pop (21 home runs) and is an extremely hard out (.361 OBP).
On Monday night, he heads to San Francisco, where the wind is blowing out to center field at double digits. The projected starter for SF is Alex Cobb and his underlying metrics suggest negative regression is on the horizon.
Cobb ranks in the bottom 20% of all pitchers in both hard-hit rate and xBA. His xERA (4.37) is also nearly 1.5 runs higher than actual (2.97), but he has skated by with an 81% strand rate.
One player worth targeting against Cobb is Carroll, who is the Diamondbacks' leader in both wRC+ (158) and isolated power (.314) against right-handed pitching. While he’s about league average in hard-hit rate, he is in the top 10% of all hitters in max exit velocity.
Based on a 104-game sample size, RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge projects a near-20% increase in home run rate and 8.4% increase in total runs due to the wind on Monday night. Even in a big park like San Francisco, balls should be flying.
While Cobb is an excellent ground ball pitcher, Carroll is a prime target for player props, whether it’s total bases or home runs. As of this writing, props for Arizona are a bit scattershot because San Francisco hasn't confirmed Cobb as the starter. However, bet365 has him at +1025, PointsBet has him at +850 and DraftKings at +800. If the number comes down once lines stabilize, he's still worth taking a shot on at the +520 number being offered at FanDuel.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Monday, July 31
- Anthony Rizzo
- Gary Sanchez
- Corbin Carroll
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,719.80.
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