Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +24583 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Alex Kiriloff, Minnesota Twins
Red Sox vs. Twins, 7:40 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Garrett Whitlock (RHP)
The most consistent Twins lefty hitter this season has been Alex Kiriloff, who has carved out a role in the middle of the order. He has crushed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .303 average and .885 OPS despite not carrying as much power.
Kiriloff has just four home runs on the year, but there are signs pointing toward his success tonight. While his ISO is just .162 against right-handed pitching, he has a 153 wRC+, the best of any Minnesota player with consistent playing time.
But more specifically, over the last 15 games, we’ve seen a steady rise in hard-hit%. Kiriloff’s biggest issue has been his low barrel rate, but his hard-hit rate has jumped nearly 30% over the last two weeks.
With Byron Buxton back as well, Kiriloff should see more pitches to hit. He draws a strong matchup on Wednesday with Garrett Whitlock on the bump for Boston. The right-hander does not walk many batters, but he has concerns with both xBA (.283) and xSLG (.450), both of which are career-lows.
Whitlock ranks below average in exit velocity and barrel% and has seen his strikeout rate drop nearly 6% from last season. I think this is the perfect time to fade the righty, who enters off 13 1/3 innings of three-run ball.
Despite an increased ground ball rate, Whitlock’s HR/9 has jumped to 1.38. Aside from his sweeper, he hasn’t found much success limiting damage. The sinker has been tattooed for a .334 xBA and .566 xSLG.
I love this long-shot play and am throwing .5u on over 1.5 total bases (+135) and Kiriloff to hit a HR (+675), both found at bet365.
Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox
Rangers vs. White Sox, 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Martin Perez (LHP)
I’m not really sure why Luis Robert is priced so far from down the odds board here. After a day off yesterday, Robert has an appetizing matchup with left-hander Martin Perez.
To put it simply, Robert crushes southpaws. His 250 wRC+ and 412 ISO ranks first on the team. He carries a 1.278 OPS – for reference, that number drops to .754 against righties – and 55% of his hits have gone for extra bases.
While his chase rate has taken a step back from last season, his barrel rate has jumped significantly. He now sports a 14.4 barrel%, inside the top 10% of all hitters. He carries consistent extra-base power and can spray across the entire field.
Perez, meanwhile, has struggled mightily across the board. He doesn’t generate swings and misses, and he relies on pitching to contact for outs. His strikeout rate is below 16% for the first time since 2018, and his xBA has crept above .280 once again.
The left-hander has seen his ground ball rate dip 10% from last season and his HR/9 jump nearly a full point. Away from home, we see a huge decline in his numbers, too.
Perez has a 6.50 ERA with 11 home runs allowed in nine starts on the road. Those numbers flip to 1.71 ERA with one home run in five starts at Globe Life Field.
I’m throwing .5u on Robert to hit over 1.5 total bases (-110) at BetMGM and .1u on HR (+420) at FanDuel.
Pick: Luis Robert to hit a HR (+420) |
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
Padres vs. Giants, 9:45 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Ryan Walker (RHP)
The wind is blowing out 20+ mph to left-center field once again, and the numbers across the board for the Padres remain too high to pass up. You can hop aboard the pain train and back Machado – who went 1-for-5 on Monday’s Triple 7s – once again tonight.
It’s always hard to back Juan Soto given his propensity to get on base with incredible plate discipline. I still stand by the fact that Machado’s hard-hit rate is up over the last few weeks and he’s been much better at the plate. He is hitting .282 in June after all.
The power just hasn’t fully followed after an incredible 2022 season. While his barrel rate is down, his strikeout rate hasn’t wavered. He remains in the top 13% of all hitters in max exit velocity, so the power is still there.
In Game 1, Juan Soto went yard twice. The next day, Fernando Tatis went dead center. Today, Machado joins them and finds the outfield seats.
This is a bullpen game for the Giants, who will throw a mixture of arms at San Diego once again. This’ll be their second bullpen game in three days and enter off two straight miracle late comeback wins.
It’s not pretty backing Machado, but the odds are too good to pass up on the superstar.
Hello darkness my old friend: .5u on over 1.5 total bases (+115) and .1u on HR (+550) at bet365.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Day, Date
- Alex Kiriloff (+675)
- Luis Robert (+400)
- Manny Machado (+550)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at bet365 comes in at $2,458.30.
