For Saturday, July 19, I'm on three MLB home run props: Pete Alonso (against the Reds), Pete Crow-Armstrong (against the Red Sox), and Lawrence Butler (against the Guardians).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets for Saturday.
Editor's Note: A parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Saturday, July 19
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 4:10 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for July 19
Pete Alonso (+325)
vs. Reds (SP: RHP Nick Martinez)
This is a plus matchup for Mets slugger Pete Alonso going up against the Reds' Nick Martinez, who has allowed 1.23 HR/9 to righties in his career and 1.26 HR/9 this season.
It is also a plus weather spot, with a 15% increase to HRs according to WeatherEdge.
I have the true odds here around +275, making this a great bet.
Lawrence Butler Home Run (+550)
at Guardians (SP: LHP Logan Allen)
I'm going hard on Athletics hitters today as their odds are far too high given the matchup.
Guardians right-hander Logan Allen has been a plus matchup for HRs in his career, giving up 1.56 HR/9 to lefties and 1.38 HR/9 to righties.
The weather should be a big plus for hitting, with temps in the mid-80s and and six mph winds blowing out.
I have the true odds for Lawrence Butler more than 100 points lower.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run (+400)
vs. Red Sox (SP: RHP Brayan Bello)
Red Sox right-hander Brayan Bello hasn't allowed many home runs to lefties this season, but he's due for some negative regression. He has allowed 1.22 HR/9 in his career to lefties.
The weather should be great for hitting in Chicago, with winds blowing out at 9 mph and a near 50% increase to HRs according to WeatherEdge.
Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has been one of the best power hitters in the league, and given the weather, I have the true odds here around +300.
