There are 15 games on the Major League Baseball slate on Saturday, May 3, and I'm all over it with my MLB home run props and picks.
Three sluggers stand out to me today and have betting value: Kyle Manzardo (against the Blue Jays), Brent Rooker (against the Marlins) and Kyle Tucker (against the Brewers).
Continue below for my three MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay picks for Saturday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds Today — 5/3
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 3:07 p.m. | |
| 4:10 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for May 3
Kyle Manzardo Home Run (+500)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Kevin Gausman)
Kyle Manzardo has been fantastic to start the season with eight home runs in 29 games.
His barrel rate, FB% and hard-hit rate have been near elite; he's in a good spot on Saturday.
Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman hasn't been great this season; he has a massive fly-ball rate and a sub-20% K rate vs. lefties.
He's due for some negative regression vs. lefties and grades out as a plus matchup for HRs. I have the true odds on Manzardo around +400.
Brent Rooker Home Run (+500)
at Marlins (SP: RHP Max Meyer)
I don't love the ballpark for A's slugger Brent Rooker today, but the odds and the matchup more than make up for it.
Rooker has been one of the best HR hitters in the league this season, and it won't surprise me to see him close in on 50 bombs.
Marlins starter Max Meyer hasn't been in the bigs for long, but he's been crushed by righty power, giving up over 2 HR/9 thus far.
He's likely due for some positive regression, but he still grades out as an above-average matchup for righty power.
I have the true odds on Rooker under +400.
Kyle Tucker Home Run (+450)
at Brewers (SP: LHP Jose Quintana)
While some people might stay away from the lefty/lefty matchup, I'm all for it.
Brewers starter Jose Quintana isn't the same pitcher he used to be, and he's been hit hard by lefties the last few seasons. He's a splits-neutral pitcher, so the matchup really isn't a bad one for Kyle Tucker.
American Family Field is an upgrade for lefty power, and Tucker has been on a tear. After what would have been a career season last year had he not gotten injured, Tucker has picked up right where he left off, with eight home runs in 33 games.
I have the true odds on Tucker around +350.
