MLB Opening Day has arrived, and to mark the occasion I have three MLB home run props on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jake Burger and Heliot Ramos.
I believe there's value on each player as straight picks, but if you're feeling spicy, you can cook up a juicy three-leg home run parlay for Opening Day.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
MLB Home Run Prop Picks — Opening Day
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:07 p.m. | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run (+575) |
  | 4:05 p.m. | Jake Burger Home Run (+500) |
  | 4:10 p.m. | Heliot Ramos Home Run (+650) |
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run Prop Analysis
Vlad Jr. still isn't the same hitter as when he hit 48 HRs, but he's still a 30-40 HR hitter.
He's in a contract year and still has the pop — even if we treat him conservatively as "just" a 30 HR hitter this line is far too high.
The matchup vs. Zach Eflin is an average one and playing in Toronto he doesn't have to deal with the weather. This line should be around +500, making this a great value.
Jake Burger Home Run Prop Analysis
We don't have a huge sample size for Burger in the majors, but he has some pop, hitting 34 HRs in 2023 and 29 HRs last season.
He gets a ballpark upgrade playing in Texas this season, and while the over matchup might be bad vs. Garrett Crochet, it's an average one for HRs.
Burger was dealing with an injury the beginning of last season (which shows with his 10 HRs in the first half of the season), but when he got healthy, he went on a tear, hitting 19 HRs in just 64 games after the All-Star Break.
I have the true odds around +400, making this a great bet.
Heliot Ramos Home Run Prop Analysis
This is probably my favorite HR prop of the day.
Ramos has a ton of power and he gets a massive ballpark boost going from one of the worst in the league (San Francisco) to one of the best (Cincinnati).
The matchup against Hunter Greene might not look like a great one for HRs if you look at last season's numbers, but Greene only had a 6.9% HR/FB rate, which is less than half what it was for the rest of his career.
Greene grades out as a great HR matchup, and if we take Ramos' batted-ball data from last season and put it into Cincinnati's ballpark, he would have had over 30 HRs.
I have the true odds around +500, making this a great bet.
