Opening weekend continues with the first Friday slate of the MLB season.
To celebrate, I've got 3 MLB Home Run Props and home-run picks, including picks for Yankees vs Giants and A's vs Blue Jays.
MLB Home Run Props: Today's Expert HR Picks
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Yankees vs Giants Home Run Prop
I'm not sure if Trent Grisham will get the start vs. a lefty, but if he does, these odds are too high. The ballpark is tough, and it is lefty-on-lefty, but Robbie Ray is a neutral matchup vs. lefties. Ray had a high 50% fly-ball rate vs. lefties last season and has historically been just below average vs. lefties in his career.
Meanwhile, Grisham is a great power bat who is consistently undervalued. I have the true odds here under +700, making this a great bet.
Pick: Trent Grisham Home Run (+800 or Better)
A's vs Blue Jays HR Pick
Daulton Varsho had a massive power year last year, when healthy, putting up 20 homers over 71 games. The barrel and hard-contact rates were career highs last season, and he's in a good spot today.
Luis Severino didn't give up a ton of homers last season, but with a 9.9% HR/FB rate last season, he's due for some regression this season and grades out as a plus matchup for lefty power.
Toronto was a top-10 ballpark last season for lefty power and should be the same this season. I have the true odds here around +350, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Daulton Varsho (+450 or Better)
A's vs Blue Jays Expert HR Pick
I have no idea what Bet365 is thinking with this line for Kazuma Okamoto, but it is 250 points higher than the next closest line.
We don't know exactly how Okamoto will do switching over to the Majors, but he was a great power bat in Japan and grades out as a 25-30 home-run hitter. Yes, Luis Severino was a below-average matchup for lefty power last season, but he's due for some large regression and grades out as a plus matchup for lefty power.
I have the true odds on Okamoto drastically lower and would hit this all the way down to +500.
Pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+500 or Better)
