Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day, diving into a full MLB slate is grueling. Sometimes, edges are nowhere to be found with a side or total.
However, opportunities to fade pitchers to a lesser degree remain constant.
One of the areas I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not plus-money, and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s.
In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot — though it's important to note the rarity of hitting that feat. Like slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player's over 1.5 HRR or TBs (.5u) and HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers.
Today's lottery ticket comes with +15960 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Brandon Nimmo (Mets)
Vs. Guardians, 6:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Ben Lively (RHP)
Brandon Nimmo has been one of the unluckiest hitters in MLB this season.
The lefty is hitting just .217 with a .414 slugging percentage. That’s come despite a 4% increase in his barrel rate, fewer strikeouts and the highest average exit velocity of his career. Regarding xBA (.297) and xSLG (.556), his numbers signify positive regression is only a matter of time.
Among qualified hitters, Nimmo is first in BA minus xBA and second in SLG minus xSLG. Few hitters are putting the ball in play as hard as Nimmo — the balls just haven’t landed. He has a career .328 batting average on balls in play, but it's down to .241 this year.
This is a good buy spot on Nimmo as he draws a heavy fly-ball pitcher in Ben Lively. Since joining Cleveland, the right-hander has become a heavy sinker-ball pitcher (up 8% in usage) yet rarely generates ground balls (26.4%).
Lively does not generate many chases out of the zone and instead relies on generating weak contact — but he's not generating weak contact. Lively’s hard-hit rate is up from last season, and he ranks among the bottom 10% of all pitchers in terms of the average exit velocity allowed (92.1 mph). Additionally, His barrel rate is approaching double digits.
Negative regression is coming for Lively, as his xERA (4.21) and xFIP (4.46) are both over a run higher than actual (3.06). He gave up three home runs in his last start against the Rangers, and that’s more of what you should expect given the concerning barrel/hard-hit numbers and Lively’s inability to keep the ball on the ground.
The Pick: .5u on B. Nimmo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+118, Parx) | .1u on HR (+630, FanDuel)
- Maximize your Mets vs Guardians action with our FanDuel promo code.
Matt Olson (Braves)
Vs. Padres, 6:20 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Randy Vasquez (RHP)
I will run this one back from last night because I am a glutton for pain.
Randy Vasquez takes the mound for San Diego, and he’s struggled in his limited appearances this season.
Of note, this is for Game 2 of the doubleheader.
The right-hander has given up a home run in three of his four starts and sports a .306 xBA, which ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers. He isn’t generating many swings and misses (14.9% strikeout rate) and has seen his barrel rate jump a couple of percentage points since coming over from New York.
Vasquez primarily relies on his fastball (36.6% usage) and has nearly doubled his curveball usage. The 25-year-old has a deep arsenal and projects as a league-average starter, but still has some underlying issues that the Braves can exploit.
I’ve become fixated on Olson lately mainly because all the underlying metrics are there, and the success just hasn’t come. The lefty is hitting .222 with just five home runs just a year after he crushed 54.
Olson still ranks in the top 3% of all hitters in hard-hit rate (career-best 56.6%), and his barrel rate remains above 15% — the balls just haven’t landed nor found the bleachers. His rolling graphs show that his hard-hit and fly-ball rates have increased over the last few weeks.
I am not worried by Olson’s early-season struggles. This is the same lefty that posted a .351 isolated power and 178 wRC+ against right-handed pitching a season ago. The underlying metrics remain, but the entire Braves offense is slumping.
I’m expecting the Padres to empty the tank in the first game of the doubleheader — you can always wait and see — which could leave their bullpen vulnerable for Olson if he doesn't smack an extra-base hit against Vasquez.
The Pick: .5u on M. Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100, FanDuel) | .1u on HR (+340)
Note: Props are only up for this game at FanDuel. I'll wait to see if a better number pops up for TBs, as FanDuel usually is worse in this prop market than other sportsbooks.
Nolan Gorman (Cardinals)
Vs. Orioles, 7:45 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Dean Kremer (RHP)
If I asked you to name the Cardinal with the highest barrel rate this season, you’d likely think Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado.
But it’s actually left-hander Nolan Gorman.
Gorman has a huge strikeout problem (35%). But he also ranks in the top 2% of all hitters in sweet-spot rate and the top 11% in barrel rate. If you dig deeper, positive regression should be on the horizon for Gorman (.200 average, .393 slugging), given his expected metrics (.231 xBA, .451 xSLG).
His rolling hard-hit and fly-ball graphs also show promise. It’s only a matter of time before Gorman gets going and begins to see his hard-hit rate regress back to the mean.
Over the last 15 days, Gorman has hit three home runs and has an OPS above 1.000. Half of his hits have gone for extra bases.
As a left-handed hitter, all his success comes against righties, and that’s a matchup we can look to take advantage of tonight.
Dean Kremer takes the mound for Baltimore, and he’s a pitcher who has consistently overperformed expectations (3.72 ERA, 5.24 xERA). His biggest issue this season has been limiting barrels — currently sitting at 13.7%, in the fourth percentile of all pitchers.
Kremer has given up a home run in six of eight starts this season (75%). He’s allowed at least two (25%) in three. I’m expecting more of the same here and looking for Gorman to continue his recent success at the plate.
The Pick: .5u on N. Gorman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+160, Bet365) | .1u on HR (+425, BetMGM)
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Monday, May 20
- Brandon Nimmo
- Matt Olson (Game 2)
- Nolan Gorman
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,596.
