Baseball betting is one of a kind. Diving into a full MLB slate every day is grueling, and sometimes, edges are nowhere to be found with a side or total.
But there are always opportunities to fade pitchers.
One of the areas I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases and home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are almost always plus-money, and home run props can often reach the +700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s.
In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot — though it's important to note the rarity of hitting that feat. Like slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers.
Today's lottery ticket comes with +26025 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
MLB Home Run Props
Pete Alonso (Mets)
Vs. Marlins, 7:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Braxton Garrett (LHP)
It’s going to be 75 and sunny in Flushing, with winds blowing out at double-digits to the left center. This is a hitter’s paradise in an otherwise pitcher-friendly park and we’re targeting New York's most powerful bat for Wednesday night’s bout — Pete Alonso.
Southpaw Braxton Garrett takes the mound for Miami and has seen his ground ball rate jump above 56% for the first time in his career. He attacks the bottom of the zone with a sinker-slider combo, but any quick mistake often comes back to haunt Garrett.
Garrett ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in hard-hit rate and opponents have an average exit velocity of 92.9 mph. When it’s on the ground, damage can be mitigated with timely double-play balls or just easy choppers.
The last time Garrett faced the Mets, he was battered for six runs over 4 1/3 innings. The Mets ultimately lost because — stop me if you’ve heard this before — the bullpen allowed four in the ninth.
In general, most of the Mets have strong numbers against the southpaw. Alonso has seen Garrett the most (18 at-bats), hitting a pair of home runs. Aside from Mark Vientos, Alonso has the highest isolated power (.277) on the team against left-handed pitching, and his 132 wRC+ ranks well above average.
If there’s one thing Alonso is known for, it’s his home-run power. He has a 13.5% barrel rate this season — 88th percentile in the bigs — and has seen his strikeout rate drop a couple of percentage points from last season.
RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge data projects a +19.8% home run increase given the conditions at Citi Field today. If you don’t like Alonso, other options include Vientos or Francisco Lindor.
Pick: Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+425, BetMGM)
Masyn Winn (Cardinals)
Vs. Pirates, 7:45 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Bailey Falter (LHP)
Rookie Masyn Winn has established himself atop this St. Louis lineup and has quickly become the team’s best hitter against left-handed pitching.
The entire Cardinals lineup is probably licking their chops at the thought of Bailey Falter taking the mound on Wednesday — a huge change up from Paul Skenes on Tuesday.
The negative regression is starting to kick in for Falter. He's a well below-average arm and has mitigated damage despite ranking in the bottom 15% of pitchers in whiff, strikeout, barrel and ground ball rates.
In other words, the southpaw has pitched to contact and is often hit hard (42.3%, career-worst). His xERA (4.99) reflects that, though he has a 3.69 ERA to show for — and that’s counting a four-inning, five-run showing last time out against the Dodgers.
The conditions are also a hitter’s paradise on Wednesday. It’s nearly 90 and sunny in St. Louis and RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge projects a +17.8% home run increase, based on a 106-game sample size.
That brings us to Winn, who is second on the team in homers off left-handed pitching.
Winn leads the Cardinals in wRC+ (133) and ranks second in isolated power (.229). He has a 47% extra-base hit rate as well, with elite speed and minimal whiffs (91st percentile).
Yes, Winn isn’t an overpowering bat — especially against righties. But he ranks in the 87th percentile in xBA and finds the sweet spot over 40% of the time.
Falter will continue to have a home run problem—career 1.65 HR/9—given his pitch mix and inability to generate many swings and misses. Add in incoming negative regression that should strike, and I believe Winn is undervalued in many hitting markets tonight.
Pick: Masyn Winn to Hit a Home Run (+1000, Bet365)
Bobby Witt Jr.
Vs. Yankees, 8:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Cody Poteet (RHP)
There’s been so much discourse about Aaron Judge’s insane stretch and Gunnar Henderson’s 21 home runs.
But what about Bobby Witt Jr.?
He's quietly put together a monstrous season at the plate and has become one of the best pure hitters in all of baseball.
Witt leads all hitters in xBA (.333) and ranks in the 95th percentile or better in barrel% (15.9), xSLG (.636) and average exit velocity. The numbers are video-game level, but he has just 11 home runs to show for it.
He's undervalued in the home run market.
Cody Poteet takes the mound for the Yankees after going toe-to-toe with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Friday. But underlying metrics across a small sample size suggest Poteet’s success should be short-lived.
Poteet has benefitted from a .209 BABIP and a 90.9% strand rate. He projects as a mid-to-high-4.00s ERA starting pitcher, one that deals with constant home run issues. Across 22 games in his career at the majors, Poteet has a 1.57 HR/9 and a 10% barrel rate.
Poteet’s Stuff+ (91) ranks below average, and it’s only a matter of time before negative regression strikes and he is roughed up.
It also happens to be great hitting conditions with the wind blowing out 12 mph to left field (89 degrees). RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge projects a +19.2% HR increase based on a 103-game sample.
Judge and Giancarlo Stanton’s odds have become unplayable — plus, Judge should be walked nearly every other at-bat at this point. But Witt remains a great value play in a plus matchup.
Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+430, FanDuel)
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Wednesday, June 12
- Pete Alonso
- Masyn Winn
- Bobby Witt Jr.
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $2,602.50.
