Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full MLB slate is grueling, and sometimes, edges are nowhere to be found with a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remain a constant.
One of the areas I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not plus-money, and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot — though it's important to note the rarity of hitting that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player's over 1.5 HRR or TBs (.5u) and HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers.
Today's lottery ticket comes with +19462 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Austin Riley (Braves)
Vs. Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Jose Quintana (LHP)
Despite his early-season struggles, Austin Riley is a player I’m looking to bet on. From watching his at-bats over the last couple of weeks and looking at his gradual rise in hard-hit rate and fly ball percentage over at FanGraphs, it’s only a matter of time before Riley goes on a tear.
Friday is a good opportunity to back the slugger, as he draws a matchup with left-hander Jose Quintana. There’s a lot to worry about with Quintana, who has an xERA of 5.95 and ranks in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in xBA (.317).
Quintana doesn't rack up many strikeouts and relies on inducing soft contact or timely ground balls to get out of jams. The issue has been a 10% increase in hard-hit rate from last year, and that's the second-worst of his career.
Given where Riley falls in the order and the fact that his underlying metrics suggest the at-bats he’s putting in remain promising, I love backing the righty tonight.
Riley’s 49.5% hard-hit rate ranks in the 88th percentile of all hitters and his barrel rate has only dropped ever-so-slightly from last year, when he crushed 37 home runs. Even with such a slight decline in barrels and xSLG, Riley has been unlucky to not hit more homers.
Funny enough, Riley’s OPS also jumps .200 points when on the road. While he hasn’t dominated lefties this season, this is a player with long-standing success against southpaws in the past. In his career, he has a 138 wRC+ and an eye-popping .269 ISO.
Pick: .5u on Riley Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-115, DraftKings) | .1u on HR (+460, FanDuel)
Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
Vs. Orioles, 7:05 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Cole Irvin (LHP)
Let’s keep it rolling with another player who I think is due for some positive regression thanks to a sustained history of success against left-handed pitching, and that’s Diamondbacks slugger Christian Walker.
While Walker does have a 135 wRC+ against southpaws this season, his power hasn't followed suit (.111 ISO). Take a look at the last two seasons and you’ll see the extra-base hits are coming.
In 2023, Walker had more extra-base hits against southpaws (19) than he did singles (17). His isolated power was an elite .319. Even the year prior, when he started taking the next step as one of MLB’s better power hitters, his ISO sat at .232.
This season, his underlying numbers have been no different. His barrel rate of 17.6% ranks among the top five percent of all hitters in baseball, and his xwOBA sits in the 97th percentile. He's been crushing the ball — his hard-hit rate has jumped by nearly double digits — and Walker is generating more walks, too.
This is a great matchup to buy the slugger, as Cole Irvin remains a fade candidate for me. He doesn't generate enough swings and misses nor strikeouts, and like the aforementioned Quintana, he relies on weak contact and ground balls.
Irvin’s xERA is nearly a run higher than actual and is among those due for negative regression. His barrel rate remains below league average (8.4%) and his hard-hit rate has actually jumped nearly 4% from last season, when he had a 5.59 xERA.
Eventually the pitch-to-contact method won't pay off, and with Walker’s ability to barrel baseballs, I'm buying the 33-year-old to hit his first home run since April.
Pick: .5u on Walker Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-115, DraftKings) | .1u on HR (+625, BetMGM)
Salvador Perez, Royals
Vs. Angels, 9:38 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Griffin Canning (RHP)
Do you like betting narratives? Well it’s Salvador Perez’s birthday today!
What's better than birthday cakes and home runs? There’s not much else. Perez has been hitting the leather off the baseball this season, ranking in the top 1% of all hitters in xSLG and posting a career-best 17.1% barrel rate through the first month-plus.
His hard-hit rate has jumped near double digits, and he’s walking at an all-time high. His strikeout rate is down at 15.6, too. He's looked like a player reborn in the early going and draws a great matchup against the lowly Griffin Canning.
Canning’s issue has long been a near-double-digit barrel rate. The same issue has persisted this season — along with a decline in ground balls — leading to the right-hander being crushed early on. His average exit velocity of 90.7 mph ranks in the bottom 15% of all pitchers.
Tack on a declining strikeout rate (16.8%), and Canning is a fade candidate for me as the season progresses.
This Royals offense is in sync right now and Perez’s dominance should continue here.
Pick: .5u on Perez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-150, DraftKings) | .1u on HR (+420, FanDuel)
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Friday, May 10
- Austin Riley
- Christian Walker
- Salvador Perez
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,946.20.
