Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full MLB slate is grueling, and sometimes, edges are nowhere to be found with a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remain a constant.
One of the areas I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not plus-money, and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot — though it's important to note the rarity of hitting that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player's over 1.5 HRR or TBs (.5u) and HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers.
Today's lottery ticket comes with +19502 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Alec Bohm (Phillies)
Vs. Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Sean Manaea (LHP)
It seems as though Alec Bohm has taken the next step forward in his progression as a hitter. This season, he's off to a phenomenal start, ranking in the 93rd percentile or better in both xBA and whiff rate.
We've seen a jump in barrels (7.3%) as well as his highest hard-hit rate since 2021. Bohm is an elite hitter at the plate, rarely striking out. He also happens to be in his best split — facing a southpaw.
Bohm’s wRC+ (199) and isolated power (.240) marks are second on the team behind Edmundo Sosa, though his strikeout rate is all the way down at 10.9% against left-handed pitching. Of his 19 hits, 42% have gone for extra bases. He also has 17 RBI — best mark on the team.
Given the injuries and Bohm’s success against southpaws, we should see him right in the middle of the order and in a prime spot to drive runs in.
He also draws a plus matchup against Sean Manaea, who's really struggled to find his command in the early going.
Manaea has seen his walk rate jump to a career-worst 12.5% as he’s become a full-time starter once again. His xBA (.258) sits at his worst since the shortened COVID season, and he's really struggled to induce ground balls (42.4% last season, down to 32% this season).
With the wind blowing out over double digits to left field, this could spell doom for Manaea against the righties in this Phillies lineup — especially if his control is wonky once again.
Bohm is a patient hitter and should find plenty of success against Manaea, who's due for negative regression (4.47 xERA).
Pick: .5u on Bohm Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-145, BetMGM) | .1u on HR (+600, FanDuel)
Christian Yelich (Brewers)
Vs. Pirates, 7:40 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Mitch Keller (RHP)
Christian Yelich’s power surge came early and often to begin the season, but a back injury sent him to the injured list for nearly a month. He did return, and against the Cardinals, Yelich finished 7-for-11.
While he didn't find the bleachers, the success at the plate was still there. His numbers are eye-popping and reminiscent of his 2018-19 days. Yelich’s xBA is .358 and his barrel rate has jumped over two percent (11.4).
He's hitting the ball in the air more and harder (52.3 hard-hit percentage), all while striking out less.
There’s no reason to believe that Yelich’s hot start is a fluke — we’ve seen what he’s been capable of in the past.
Mitch Keller takes the mound for the Pirates on Monday, and he’s begun to regress from a strong last couple of seasons. The right-hander’s hard-hit rate has jumped nearly double digits (44.5%) and he's seen his strikeout numbers dip as well.
Keller has given up a home run in six of his last seven starts and has been unable to keep the ball on the ground as often. His velocity has slightly dropped, too, making him prone to more blowups.
Yelich is second on the team against right-handed pitching (176 wRC+) and has the best isolated power (.273) among all Brewers. Of his 14 hits, five have gone for extra bases (35.7%).
Yelich is an on-base machine and should find success in a plus matchup here.
Pick: .5u on Yelich Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-135, DraftKings) | .1u on HR (+560, FanDuel)
Corey Seager, Rangers
Vs. Guardians, 8:05 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Tanner Bibee (RHP)
It was an extremely slow start to the season for Corey Seager. Not only was a World Series hangover on the horizon for the MVP runner up, but he underwent surgery to repair a hernia. His production was limited as he eased back into action.
I believe now is the perfect time to buy the lefty. For starters, he's one of the least luckiest hitters in baseball when it comes to batted balls. He ranks second in SLG-xSLG (-.144) and fifth in wOBA-xwOBA.
In other words, Seager is putting the ball in play and hitting it hard, but the results just haven't followed. Seager’s numbers have definitely taken a hit this season, but he remains a tough strikeout and inside the top 20% of all hitters in xSLG. His barrel rate also sits in double digits, too.
Over the last seven days, Seager has finally seen the power come around. He has a pair of home runs and is hitting .304 across 23 at-bats.
Tanner Bibee starts for the Guardians and continues to be a fade candidate (4.94 xERA) in his sophomore season. His barrel rate has nearly doubled (11.3%) and his xBA (.267) has also seen a drastic jump for the worse.
It’s only a matter of time before Seager returns to form and in a great matchup against a home run-prone righty, I’m looking to buy stock now.
Pick: .5u on Seager Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-155, DraftKings) | .1u on HR (+350, FanDuel)
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Monday, May 13
- Alec Bohm
- Christian Yelich
- Corey Seager
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,950.20.
